The Countdown to Brexit: Time Passes with No Positive Signs on the Horizon

The Knesset Elections: Reshaping Israel's Status Quo

Bolton's Dismissal: a Crack in the White House or Reshaping?

Outlook 2019

Analytical Perspective: China's Strategy in the Middle East

Previous studies on China's strategy in the Middle East are indeed few, as analyses focused on China's Belt and Silk Road initiative, however, these studies overlooked China's relations with the Middle East countries on the one hand and its role in the complexities of the region on the other. Therefore, this analytical perspective seeks to introduce key elements of China’s strategy in the Middle East, particularly the means and mechanisms of its engagement and partnerships in the region.

Strengthening Strategic Stability in the Middle East

For the last twenty years, the U.S. played the role of the guarantor of security in the Middle East, however, doubts increase over possible U.S. intent to disengage from the region, and despite signs of the U.S. remaining in the region, there are also solid indications of an intent to partially leave it. Thus, this paper assesses the hypothesis that the U.S. may seek to partially disengage from the Middle East, by proposing a set of strategic options should Washington increase its "partial disengagement" measures.

US Elections 2020: A Race for Second Term or New President?

The US presidential elections have always been of near-decisive importance for all the major issues and files at the national level as well as the international arena and for handling its course of events. These elections, which will be held in early November 2020, are within the same context, but they are also specifically significant due to the poor health situation resulting from the outbreak of the novel coronavirus and its repercussions on social and economic activities, the matter which increased the political polarization among the competitors for the highest executive position in the United States....

"The Afghanistan Papers" and the future's peace with Taliban

Arab World as Reflected in Some Global Indicators: What Do the Numbers Tell Us?

Looking at several and comprehensive indexes offers a broad perception of the ranking of any state or region to the entire world. This is done by measuring the dynamic changes in the fields of development, economics, local politics, security, and peace. Accordingly, this article introduces a wider perspective of the situation of Arab countries in a number of selected global indexes.

Files on the G7 Table

Amman, Cairo, and Baghdad: Towards a pioneering development partnership

Amman, Cairo, and Baghdad are engaged in quiet and intensive talks to formulate a framework of a multi-domain development partnership, thus, numerous official and technical meetings aimed at studying the opportunities that each country has...

The Ruling Taliban: Domestic Challenges and Geostrategic Goals

News from Afghanistan is at the forefront of international capitals' attention, with Taliban Movement taking control of Afghan geography, marking a turning point in the history of a country that is ever engaged in international tensions, once in the collapse of the Soviet Union and then in the war on terrorism. The following paper outlines the most important "domestic" challenges facing the Movement in establishing sustainable and stable political governance. It also reviews Taliban in the highly competitive geostrategic perspective between Washington on the one hand and Beijing and Moscow on the other. The paper concludes by demonstrating the importance of gaining international recognition for the government that Taliban says it is forming with various parties, noting that such recognition will remain subject to Taliban’s ability to prove its good will in breaking with its past and building a new reality away from terrorism or extremism.

Jordan's Railway Projects: Aspirations and Challenges

This paper presents an integrated and comprehensive insight of Jordan's aspirations towards the railway project, highlighting one of the most important national strategic projects in the near future; the nature of its regional dimensions that are intended to enhance Jordan's position and regional presence; as well as the intertwining of economic and logistical interests among the countries of the region.

Position Assessment: Potential Pathways of Conflict between Hamas and Israel

some of days of war have passed, yet the possible consequences remain enigmatic to observers, as this conflict presents multiple potential outcomes at the Israeli, Palestinian, regional, and international levels. This position assessment aims to explore the most likely scenarios for future developments.

Domination Over Waterways

Maritime security, in its broader sense, is of strategic importance to international powers due to their direct association with energy security. Waterways or straits are considered "choke-points", which are defined in the military strategy as points of congestion for their geographical positioning. Therefore, such points give superiority for whoever controls them. This article examines facts and expectations related to the strategic importance of the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb since the Middle East oil passes through these two straits into the world markets, while also passing through the Cape of Good Hope, the Strait of Malacca, Indonesian straits, and the Suez Canal.

The Future of the World's Energy Resources

Following the widespread notion of the depletion of existing energy resources, which has led to the emergence of climate change and the global warming crisis, the world is now searching for alternative energy resources to traditional resources known to humankind, to be used in economic development, technological progress, and an arms race. In this context, this article highlights some renewable and non-renewable energy resources and their global demand, in addition to energy resources to which the world will resort in the future. In this context, this article highlights some renewable and non-renewable energy resources and their global demand, in addition to energy resources to which the world will resort in the future.

An Overview of the Lebanese Economic Crisis and its Dimensions

This article addresses key reasons behind the economic crisis in Lebanon, reflected in the widespread popular protests across the country and the resulting political vacuum after the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri and the formation of Hassan Diab’s government.

Washington and Tehran: Dimensions of Military Engagement in the Middle East

In light of the Iranian military response to Soleimani’s assassination, observes raised several questions such as what is going to happen next? How will the U.S. respond? And is it possible that the region will slide into an all-out war?

The Economic Trends of Trump's Administration

This article highlights the economic contradictions that accompanied and stemmed from Trump's rise to power in the U.S., and addresses major economic visions adopted by the current presidential team.

The Day After “The Deal”

After announcing the “Deal of the Century” to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, what are its implications on the course of the peace process in general? And will this plan be treated as a new reference point, or will it be a mere non-binding proposal?

Munich Security Conference 2020: A Reflection of Relations Crisis in the West

The Munich Security Conference 2020 was held under the topic “Westlessness in the West”, amid disputes between the U.S. and European powers and the increased pressure on the continent due to the state of conflict and competition between the United States, China, and Russia. Hence, this article provides an overview of the Western scene, primarily a reading of U.S.- European relations and challenges facing the security community.

Twenty-Third Knesset Elections: Where is the Crisis of Governance headed?

On March 2, 2020, polling stations in Israel will open for the third election in less than a year as the influence of polarization, tension, and uncertainty on the Israeli political scene continues. What are the recent developments in this scene since September 2019? Will these developments affect the crisis of forming a government?

Position Paper: Conservatives in the Iranian Legislative Authority: Background and Implications

The conservative current enjoyed great victory in the Iranian legislative elections on February 21, 2020. The questions raised here are over whether they will succeed in formulating a new foreign policy vision? Also, will it tighten the internal screws on Rouhani's government?

Will Coronavirus further complicate the upcoming Economic Crisis?

The outbreak of the Coronavirus has caused a state of panic in financial markets around the world and shaken its economic foundations so where does this epidemic fall as a cause of the economic crisis among other factors? what is the nature of these factors, and how did they interact with this epidemic? And will global powers move towards aggravation or agreement in confronting one of the greatest threats of this time?

Will the U.S. Dollar Lose its Place as a Global Currency?

In light of the challenges facing the dollar today, namely the Coronavirus pandemic that the world is suffering today which alters the rules of the global game in a certain way, in addition to the constant pressures the dollar is bearing by China, Russia, and the European Union, particularly the heavy dependency that binds the U.S. and Chinese economies, as well as the continuous criticism directed at the dollar from EU countries; Will the dollar lose its place as a global currency? and will US President Donald Trump reduce the dollar value?

Israel as a New Arena of Chinese-U.S. Competition

In light of the increasingly tense Chinese-U.S. relations and given the internal and external circumstances in Israel, could Israel be the next arena for Chinese-U.S. competition? Are Beijing and Washington racing to win the loyalty of Tel Aviv? Or will the U.S. pressure Israel, its strategic and historical ally, to negatively affect Israeli-Chinese relations?

Turkish Aspirations for the Eastern Mediterranean Gas

Turkey has undoubtedly become a major energy corridor linking East and West, through which it was able to obtain a geostrategic significance, yet, Turkey is still unsatisfied. On the contrary, it proceeded to impose itself as a key player in the energy field without having the necessary resources for it. It also seeks to find a place in any project for extracting or transporting gas in the region; so will Turkey succeed in achieving its goals?

STRATEGIECS Chairman Mr. Hasan Ismaik: "Third Way is the key to ending the War of All Against All and moving towards a New Arab Era"

In his interview with Journalist Mahmoud Alwerwary on Al-Hadath TV, STRATEGIECS Chairman Mr. Hasan Ismaik answers key questions relating to the role of youth in society, and the role of the private and public sectors in solving youth issues, especially in the post-Coronavirus crisis period, and developing their skills to join the job market. He also discusses a "third way" through which Arabs can find their salvation and rise with their youth towards a new era that is free of conflicts and wars and full of stability and comprehensive development.

Indian-Chinese Engagements in Flux

Following clashes resulting in the killing of dozens of soldiers, Indian-Chinese tensions witness an unprecedented escalation, as the Galwan Valley confrontations on June 15, 2020, are the first to result in casualties since 1975. Hence, this paper discusses the historical tensions between the two countries, the factors that led to such escalation, and the forecasted outcomes of current events.

Implications of Implementing the National Security Law for Hong Kong

What are the consequences for Beijing’s enactment of the Hong Kong National Security Law? Will this lead to an escalation of tensions in the U.S.-China relations? What are the implications of Hong Kong's loss of its relative independence over the South China Sea region, which is essentially a disputed region between China and other countries?

Constitutional Amendments in Russia: Understanding Context and Significance

This paper examines the implications of the recent amendments to Russia’s constitution in 2020, both in its internal and external context. It also attempts to answer the question as to what will Russian President Vladimir Putin do after his presidency ends in 2024, in light of the current amendments, especially those affecting sovereign institutions and articles related to the presidential period?

Parallel International Organizations (G7+)

This report serves as the opening paper for “Files on the G7 Table”, in which the research team will publish multiple headlines, addressing urgent strategic issues at the regional and international levels, examining current international organizations’ ability to respond to major crises, including the outbreak of the novel-Coronavirus, and assessing G7’s strength, in its current form, to overcome multiple challenges.

What do we expect from the 46th G7 summit?

All eyes are on the anticipated G7 Summit which is to be held in the US in 2020. In view of this, the following article presents insightful narration of the 46th summit outcomes, based on the last three summits held in Italy, Canada, and France, which the US President, Donald Trump, has attended since he took office, and it is Trump who will be the host figure of this year’s summit.

G7 and Iran

Iranian foreign policy and its practical implications represent one of the key Middle Eastern controversial issues with an international dimension. How do the G7 countries deal with Iran's behavior in the region? Is there an agreement on this interaction mechanism? This is the second paper in the series that will be published under "Files on the G7 Table."

Reading in the Reality and Future of the G7 Group

The G-7 is facing changes in its internal political and economic environment, as well as the changing international environment, with the rise of major emerging powers such as: China, India and Russia. These variables pose unprecedented challenges to their internal homogeneity and global impact. This paper examines the reality and future of the G7 in the light of these changes.

Climate Diplomacy: between legal barriers and one-sided interests

This article explores the most prominent features of "climate diplomacy" aimed at increasing international coordination momentum to contain the negative effects of climate change; this coordination collides with legal barriers and is inevitably affected by political trends and economic interests. In addition, the article offers a future outlook on the implication of climate change on the global reality from a health, economic, and geopolitical perspective, examining whether the balance of power will be disrupted by these changes.

Technological Competition: Beijing vs. the West

Technological development in the field of communication networks and technologies in general is one of the most prominent issues of interest to the central capitals of the world, because of its future importance in the possibility of redrawing the influence of a major country at the expense of another in the military and economic fields. The article explores the highlights of the technological competition between the Western countries and China, with explaining the most prominent aspects of this competition in the near term.

The Concept of "Failed State"

Recently, there has been increased discourse on the reasons behind a state's failure as an institutional entity and its demographical fragmentation as a geographical status, due to worsening economic and social crises at the global level, in addition to escalating security tensions in many regions and territories. So, what does the term "failed state" refer to? Are the criteria used in determining the degree of failure of a specific state effective, when compared with the factors causing this situation in the first place?

"G7+" vs. China: Underlying Trends and Challenges

The 46th G7 summit will likely witness an expansion after inviting Russia, Australia, South Korea, and India to the summit meetings; a step that many observers consider as part of U.S. policy to contain China's growth. Hence, this article explores the underlying trends behind the G7 expansion, and the challenges facing U.S. President, Donald Trump, in his efforts to transform the G7 into an anti-China platform.

Natural Gas: between tankers and pipelines

This article outlines the highlights of the natural gas production and distribution map and its most famous selling markets, as well as the endeavors of the major countries to compete over these markets, which are gaining importance and growing prominence in the global energy market.

Populist Protests: Does the G7 hold the key to addressing the class gap?

G7 countries are witnessing, to varying extents, deep divisions based on wealth distribution and political trends. These divisions have resulted in the emergence of multiple populist movements that call for a radical change in the international economic system logic. Also, the novel "coronavirus" has further disclosed the social and economic implications of these structural imbalances. Hence, what are the potential consequence of class divisions among the G7 countries?

Post-Abe Japan and The Challenges of Foreign Policy

After spending eight years as Prime Minister, Abe’s resignation brings to mind a long era of political instability and weak governments, at a time when Japan needs strong governments to manage its capabilities and face the massive internal and external challenges. Accordingly, this article examines the impact of dynamics of temporary governance and weak governments on Japan foreign policy, especially with regard to the multiple alliances and partnerships after Abe.

The Race for the Awaited Vaccine

This article reviews the global efforts aimed at creating a safe and reliable vaccine to control the outbreak of the emerging coronavirus, and discusses the economic, political and security dimensions surrounding the vaccine development process in light of the continued increase in the number of infections around the world and the overburdening of the health system and the economy due to the repercussions of the pandemic.

Azerbaijan-Armenian Escalation: All-out War or Military Skirmishes?

Assessment of the effectiveness of US sanctions policy

As the scale of US sanctions –used as a major means of achieving US foreign policy goals- has been widening under Trump’s administration, it is imperative, at the by the end of its four-year term, to evaluate the effectiveness of the imposed sanctions and to shed light mainly on the negative repercussions that have affected the durability of Washington's strategic position in the international arena.

A glimpse of US foreign policy under President Trump

The last four years have constituted significant diplomatic phenomena and events in the international community. This is due, according to some, to the behavior of the US administration of President Donald Trump towards international actors and its views on dealing with complex issues in the regions of hotbeds of tension. This article provides a summary of the most prominent US foreign policy approaches under Donald Trump.

Demographics and the 2020 presidential election

The US presidential elections are taking place this year amid unprecedented social tension, according to some observers. This report provides a historical overview of the interaction between the US local political environment and demographic considerations, and it attempts to foresee the identity of the next president in light of the current tensions that would further draw these considerations into guiding the American electorate.

The US Economy Situation under pressure of political competition and health crisis

The US economy is witnessing high levels of instability over the coronavirus pandemic, thus affecting Trump’s chances of winning the race for Us presidency. This articles summarizes the path of the economy under Trump, shedding the light on the most prominent criticisms made about it prior to and post the novel coronavirus outbreak.

Scenarios for the next president in light of opinion polls

Opinion polls of the 2020 elections, as well as US elections in general, largely attract lots of attention, follow-up and controversy. Despite their inability to determine the final winner, they provide important insight into the preferences of American voters preceding polling day (on November 3, 2020). Having regard to that, this article examines four potential scenarios for the candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump winning the election, based on an analytical perspective of various polls.

Social media: orienting voters or just interacting opinions?

“Social media have gone from being the natural infrastructure for sharing collective grievances and coordinating civic engagement to being a computational tool for social control, manipulated by canny political consultants and available to politicians in democracies and dictatorships alike.” This is how social media is described in a report – made by Oxford University’s Computational Propaganda Project and Graphika, social media analysis firm - on the employment of Russian semi-governmental entities of major social media platforms with the aim of interfering in the course of the 2016 US presidential elections. The following article highlights the role of social media in the 2020 elections and its decisive role in influencing the American electorate.

A quite exceptional American elections

Five days after global anticipation of the US election results, Joe Biden announces himself the 46th President of the United States, despite Donald Trump refusal to concede defeat. What do we make of the present political scene in the United States? Will the battle over the most powerful and highest-level executive position continue in Washington? What are the main foreign policy issues facing the next administration?

China's Geostrategy: A Broad Overview

In the midst of China's rapid rise as an influential global force in the course of international events and decisions, how does Beijing deal with vital territories that embrace a relative part of its interests? This article provides a brief comparison of China's dealing with southeast Asian and Middle Eastern regions, and shows how the circumstances surrounding China force it to order its geostrategic priorities.

On the Regulation of US Tech Sector

Controversy over the economic and social role played by big US tech companies escalates from time to time, particularly after debate has been brought to the corridors of the legislative and executive institutions. This article provides an analysis of the events surrounding the US tech sector regulation lawsuits.

About Washington withdrawal from open skies treaties

This report provides an overview of the Treaty on Open Skies and discusses Washington's justifications for withdrawal. The report also explores the possible implications of the withdrawal on international arms control and whether Biden’s administration will take serious practical steps to preserve arms control treaties and enhance multilateral work.

The assassination of Mohsen Fakhri Zadeh: what is next?

The assassination of the top nuclear scientist in Iran is a source of speculations about the imminent date of the war, what delays it? What can the coming new administration do for the accelerated tension in the region? And how has this defined the current attitude of the Iranian leadership?

How was the largest free trade agreement in history signed?

This article provides an analysis to the conditions of signing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, in a reading of China’s role in this important economic event and its relations with other involved parties, in addition to speculating about the way in which the coming US administration will deal with this commercial understanding.

Endless Political Crises In Tel Aviv

The political crisis in Israel is deepening due to the sharp disagreements between the poles of the coalition government. What are the options before the main political powers in Tel Aviv? How did the Israeli political scene get to such level of complexity in the first place?

Arab World as Reflected in Some Global Indicators: What Do the Numbers Tell Us?

Looking at several and comprehensive indexes offers a broad perception of the ranking of any state or region to the entire world. This is done by measuring the dynamic changes in the fields of development, economics, local politics, security, and peace. Accordingly, this article introduces a wider perspective of the situation of Arab countries in a number of selected global indexes.

Between Allies and Adversities: What Does Biden's Victory Imply?

Joe Biden never stopped stressing – ever since he was still a candidate – his promises to put the United States back on the global arena, rehabilitate relations with allies and curb competitors, in a time where the whole world is observing this traditional American discourse welcoming and anticipating. This material studies the shape of foreign affairs that will be adopted by the newly elected president, it also seeks to answer an important question: what are the variables and invariables that we will witness in policies compared to those of the outgoing president Donald Trump?

STRATEGIECS in 2020: A Research in the Chaos of  News and Events

A truly exceptional year! Significant events have been breaking out concurrently to the field of international relations with its various ramifications, obliging research centers to immediately and appropriately respond to the accelerating changes, for the sake of reflecting their complexity and the impacts of their interactions in the near term at best. This article sheds light on STRATEGIECS experience in 2020, in terms of challenges and achievements brought about in the midst of an atmosphere of anticipation, monitoring and analysis.

Washington and the faltering transition to power

Despite the results’ announcement, the controversy over the US presidential elections is still going on, as uncertainty and haziness prevail in a scene fairly open to all options including political, or even security, escalation.

The Controversial of American Security Assessment on Iran

The following position paper provides an overview of the multiple and contradictory US security assessments regarding the Iranian file, in an attempt to determine the nature of the anticipated Iranian moves in light of this military build-up and the political escalation surrounding the region.

How Deep Is the Lebanese Financial Crisis Now?

The Lebanese economy has been suffering from a set of complex crises that - through interaction - became evident by the end of 2019, at what time a dramatic collapse started, affecting various aspects of public life. What are the most prominent manifestations of these crises?

Regional Reconciliation in Libya

The following political alert paper reviews the most important regional and international indicators that may push for a political settlement to the Libyan crisis. It also discusses the internal Libyan factors that must be present to ensure a sustainable solution in light of some positive changes in the regional climate.

The Future of Trumpism in the American Domestic Structure

this research paper studies the American local structure on levels of politics, society and security, based on the impact of the events that took place recently in the United States, it also looks ahead the coming movements that might be adopted by rightist populism that supports Trump as a method to express its political self.

Biden and Mistakes of the Past in Iraq: Opportunity to Compensate or Scene That Will Repeat Itself?

After becoming President of the United States, this analytical reading attempts to answer the following question: Will Biden correct his mistakes he committed in Iraq, based on his experience in Iraqi affairs, which many critics describe as "controversial", as he worked closely for several years as a chair of the Foreign Relations Committee and then as Obama’s Vice President.

Troubled democratic transition in Tunisia

Tunisia is in a state of political deadlock as a result of sharp differences between the components of the legislative and executive branches, creating a state of uncertainty and instability in light of a growing economic and social crisis. 10 Years after the revolution that toppled the regime of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, what does the political scene look like in Tunisia?

The complicated Military Map in North-Eastern Syria

Tensions are escalating around the town of Ain Issa which is located on the international highway M4 in the northern countryside of Al-Raqqa governorate, thus having strategic significance in the context of the raging military conflict in northeastern Syria between the Turkish forces and their proxy armed factions, the Syrian Democratic Forces, and the Syrian regular army that is coordinating with Russia. What does the scene look like there?

Biden and the Dilemma of the American Iranian Relationship

This report analyzes the position of both the Biden and Tehran administration regarding the Iranian nuclear file, in an attempt to understand the most prominent challenges that prevent the normal flow of relations to and from Tehran.

WHO and Challenges of Covid-19 Response

Much blame is placed on WHO for its mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic, as accusations indicate that it is subject to political and economic considerations at the expense of public health issues. Accordingly, this paper evaluates the criticisms directed at the Organization and the problems it faces.

Biden Administration's Review of International Conventions

The following opinion article reviews the political and legal obstacles that Biden's team will face reviewing international agreements ratified by previous administrations. It also argues about the validity of the view of some analysts that the influence of the US Presidency in foreign policy is limited, since the decision-making process is conducted according to specific professional foundations.

Tehran and the Dream of Prosperous Energy Sector

Political circles in Tehran hope that the new US administration will ease restrictions on Iran's energy sector in the context of the prospect of lifting sanctions and returning to the nuclear deal, in a move that will alleviate the economic crisis exacerbated by the Covid-19 outbreak.

Between Domestic Terrorism and International Terrorism: Law Enforcement Forces Failure to Prevent Congress Storming

The attack on the U.S. Congress highlighted the term "domestic terrorism" and the failure of law enforcement agencies to address it. This is due to the absence of legal regulations and operational procedures, which had been directed towards combating global terrorism. It is expected that the focus in the future will be on "domestic terrorism" and ways to combat it.

Tension Dynamics between Sudan and Ethiopia

The recent armed clashes between the Sudan and Ethiopia have once again highlighted issues of security and peace in the Horn of Africa and opened a new chapter of historic tensions on the borders. In this article, we present a picture of whether there is a possibility that tension will escalate into a conflict at the level of the two states and the sub-region of the Horn of Africa as a whole, based on a series of overlapping and interrelated changes and transformations, to consequently answer the following key question: Are these clashes an incidental situation or a prelude to a wider conflict?

US- Economy- Based Fears

In the absence of an immediate prospect for the end of the health crisis and its associated economic and social impacts, what does the US economy look like after 2020?

US Approach to Turkey

This article seeks to analyze the Biden administration's approaches to relations with Turkey, by relying on the analysis of the content of the discourse and the realist policy of Biden, and then to answer the following key question: What are the determinants that will shape US-Turkish relations under the new administration?

World Monetary Fund: What Does 2021 Hold for Us?

International institutions involved in economic and financial affairs are monitoring and interpreting the negative effects on the global economy as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. The following lines provide a glimpse of the IMF's projections of the progress of the global economy in 2021.

Europe in Biden Era: Increased International Presence or Retreat under US Umbrella?

This strategic analysis looks ahead to the future of US-European relations under Biden after four years of deepening strategic contradictions between the two sides of the Atlantic. It also discusses whether "European independence" is practical in the world order.

ISIS's Return to Iraq: Incitements and Obstacles

This reading assesses the most important strengths and weaknesses related to the capabilities of ISIS in Iraq. It also looks forward to the behavior of this terrorist organization and whether it is able and willing to expand again, as it did in mid-2014.

UAVs and Future Threats

The world is witnessing a huge leap in the development of military tools used in various conflicts. UAVs are one of the most prominent modern tools that have changed the concepts of conventional force as well as financial and human costs on battlefields. It has been widely used by regular armies, armed groups and terrorist organizations, besides the fact that their threats increase when they are used to serve terrorist attacks within urban areas. This report examines the new dynamics of such technology and the risks of its negative uses to the national security of countries.

Yemen: The Road to Reconciliation

The following position paper foresees the future of the reconciliation in Yemen in light of some of the changes that have taken place during the past 6 years. It also reviews the most prominent local obstacles to real stability in the country.

The Tense Political Landscape in Tehran

Iran post-Islamic Revolution is characterized by a political movement unprecedented in the region, in terms of the intensity of political polarization on the one hand, and its interaction with the structure of the theocratic system in institutional terms on the other. What does it look like in Iran in light of the qualitative changes taking place at the regional and international levels?

Amman's Approach to the New Washington

Having experienced an unusual relationship with the Trump administration on Jordan’s role on a number of issues, could some of the measures and amendments that Jordan may take help reset the pace of US-Jordanian political relations, with a new Democratic US administration? ‎

Amman, Cairo, and Baghdad: Towards a pioneering development partnership

The following policy paper reviews the features of the upcoming partnership within the Amman-Cairo-Baghdad axis in light of regional and international developments, and defines the general theoretical framework governing its interactions. It also contains 22 recommendations to policy makers that can contribute to achieving the desired goals and ensure the sustainability of the axis for the coming years, enabling it to attract the support of regional and international powers for implementing development projects away from the widespread political polarization in the Middle East. This paper is to be followed by another paper on the tripartite partnership from a purely economic perspective in accordance with the macroeconomic indicators of each country, showing the most prominent economic elements on which to base the economic vision of the emerging axis.

Dimensions of Turkey’s Utilization of Military Force in Regional Politics

Turkey has recently expanded its military footprint on various battlefields; Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan, raising questions about the existence of a new military and defense policy. This article tackles the Turkish utilization of military force in regional politics.

Syria's International Rehabilitation: What Is Next?

The following strategic assessment paper reviews Syria's position in the regional and international environments in light of the immediate changes that will inevitably cast a shadow over the situation in Syria. The paper also argues that the process of "rehabilitation" for the return of Damascus's diplomatic relations with the international community must be accompanied by "comprehensive local reconstruction" within a path that takes into account the political, economic, security and community aspects.

A Glimpse into the Libyan Economy after Political Consensus

Almost a decade after political and security instability, a new Libyan government was formed in March 2021 as a result of a UN-sponsored dialogue between political parties. It is self-evident that the political agreement, which some describe as non-solid, is not the last knot untied in the local Libyan conflict, especially in light of the large and complex economic challenges facing the State of Libya, to which this article is trying to give highlight.

US Retreat from the Middle East and the Future of Global Leadership

One after another, US leaders bring the academic and intellectual community into a state of uncertainty when seeking to approach their global slogans about the US return to world leadership, coinciding with consensus on the apparent state of exhaustion as a result of the intervention in the Middle East, and amid calls and promises to withdraw from the region that is of great strategic and geopolitical weight. Thereupon, the following article examines the premise that the US retreat from the Middle East ends any chance of leading the world and threatens the pillars of the post-Cold War world order.

US-Russia Summit: Chance Meeting or First Step to Correct Course?

All eyes are on the US-Russian summit scheduled for mid-June 2021, due to its significance in determining the course of interactions between the two powers in the next three and a half years of Biden's presidency. The following analytical reading reviews the most prominent factors of strategic aggravation and provides a vision of a possible breakthrough in relations between the two poles of the former Cold War in light of changing state priorities in the time of Covid-19 (as most states tend to focus their attention on domestic issues at the expense of foreign policy) along with the implication of China’s rise represented in a potential repositioning within the world order and in the relations between key actors.

Is It a Possible to Disconnect Russia from SWIFT?

Is there a US intention to separate Russia from the global monetary system? Is it capable of this act? And what will be the consequences? How do US allies and adversaries deal with the fact that Washington is dominating the global monetary system? This analytical reading will try to answer these and other questions on issues related to Moscow's experience with Western sanctions, particularly in its financial aspect.

Geostrategy in 21st Century

This analytical reading attempts to briefly examine the most prominent factors that weaken the role of classical geostrategy in determining international influence. With the rise of factors influencing the calculations of world powers, it is not possible in the 21st century to rely on the expansionism – which is costly and useless – that dominated international politics at the turn of the 20th, as the instruments of control and influence have changed, necessitating the adaptation of geostrategy to these changes.

Addis Ababa and the Issue of Influence in Horn of Africa

It seems that the Ethiopian government of the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, refuses to acknowledge the fact that Ethiopia is a landlocked country. It considers that its influence in the Horn of Africa will be difficult to expand without access to sea ports. In this analytical reading, the general contexts in which Addis Ababa is looking for a regional role will be highlighted.

Ibrahim Raisi in Power: Will Tehran's Foreign Policy Change?

The following article seeks to highlight the future of Iranian foreign policy under the new Iranian president, Ibrahim Raisi, after taking into account the factors that control Iran's foreign political scene and its interactions with domestic affairs on the one hand and with the distribution of power regionally and internationally on the other.

Israel Post-May 10th

The recent large-scale military clash between Palestinian factions in Gaza and Israel marks a milestone in the course of Palestinian-Israeli interactions; for although the realities on the ground have not changed, the repercussions of the recent escalation continue to mount before Israel. The following strategic assessment discusses the interaction of Israel's formal and social structure with vital fronts: the Israeli interior, Jerusalem, the diplomatic environment, and military operations. The paper also includes a possible outlook for these interactions.

The Ruling Taliban: Domestic Challenges and Geostrategic Goals

News from Afghanistan is at the forefront of international capitals' attention, with Taliban Movement taking control of Afghan geography, marking a turning point in the history of a country that is ever engaged in international tensions, once in the collapse of the Soviet Union and then in the war on terrorism. The following paper outlines the most important "domestic" challenges facing the Movement in establishing sustainable and stable political governance. It also reviews Taliban in the highly competitive geostrategic perspective between Washington on the one hand and Beijing and Moscow on the other. The paper concludes by demonstrating the importance of gaining international recognition for the government that Taliban says it is forming with various parties, noting that such recognition will remain subject to Taliban’s ability to prove its good will in breaking with its past and building a new reality away from terrorism or extremism.

The Changing Landscape in Central Asia after Afghanistan's Fall

Central Asian countries are back at the forefront of events and analyses after the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in conjunction with the US withdrawal. This article examines the reactions of Central Asian countries in local and regional context and the future of their relations with the Taliban.

"The Afghanistan Papers" and the future's peace with Taliban

Rail Network Strategy: Jordanian hopes and Search for Regional Integration

This paper provides an overview of the national railway network project, which was announced in the Government’s Economic Priorities Program for 2021-2023, explaining the economic basis of the project based on theoretical references of the railway sector. Additionally, the paper examines the national railway's interactions with global logistical interconnection projects across the Middle East, where large-scale projects were announced both in complementary and conflicting contexts, which demonstrates that the national railway cannot be separated from regional and international turmoil.

The Directions of Jordan’s Energy Sector

The Executive Action Plan for the Comprehensive Strategy of Energy Sector in Jordan for the period 2020-2030 outlines the country’s direction in the energy sector, as well as its involvement in regional energy projects by using geographical considerations and logistics to play a major role in the region. The purpose of this report is to highlight Jordan's energy strategy, as well as the special nature of Jordan's role in regional energy projects.

Jordan and Syria: A Cautious Rapprochement Maneuver

As military and government officials from the two neighboring countries met at high levels in Amman, Jordan-Syria relations are showing signs of cooling off the dispute factors between the two countries. This communication reached a political and leadership level with a phone call between King Abdullah II and President Bashar al-Assad. The following analytical reading reviews the most important outstanding issues between the two sides, and provides a diagnosis of the most prominent obstacles which the course of Jordanian-Syrian interactions may encounter.

Zulfiqar-1400 Drills: Operational Tactics and Political Messages

The following report provides an overview of the most notable operational aspects of the “Zulfiqar-1400” military drills carried out by the Iranian army. It also discusses the political messages conveyed by the drills at a time when Iran's diplomacy is preparing to resolve several issues, including the Vienna nuclear negotiations.

Jordan's Role in Promoting Peace and Stability in the Region under the Leadership of His Majesty the King

This paper provides an overview of the most significant titles and stations of Jordan's role in promoting stability and building peace in the region under King Abdullah II's leadership. In addition, it examines the main features of the Jordanian situation in economic, political, and social terms, as well as its regional and international political activity, in light of the current situation and within the context of Jordan's geostrategic position and the nature of threats it faces. Furthermore, the paper predicts the possible and likely future of the active Jordanian role in shaping the features of the region, and the continued Jordanian activity in all directions and possibilities as an active actor playing its role to pursue stability in the region in where the doors to peace and development will open.

TALIBANIST AFGHANISTAN: THE FUTURE AND THE IMPLICATIONS ON POLITICAL ISLAM

This paper assesses the first months of Taliban's rule, citing the elements of power and weakness which such movements demonstrated until the end of the year 2021. It also explores the future and nature of Taliban's continuation to dominate Afghanistan, and the implications of such continuity over the international landscape of political Islam.

JORDAN'S ORIENTATION TOWARDS THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN BASIN

This paper evaluates the current level of Jordan's relations with Cyprus and Greece, and examines the most significant Jordanian strategic objectives of these relations. In addition, the paper sheds light on the "changing" regional environment in which these relations are taking place, and provides recommendations that Jordanian diplomacy can follow to enhance its orientation towards the eastern Mediterranean basin.

SYMBOLS IN THE ARAB MIND

This paper examines the significance of employing symbols in various aspects of life, particularly in political ones, and how these symbols are linked to individuals and groups, affecting their behavior, perceptions and impressions, so that they ultimately become an integral part of political culture.

WATER SECURITY IN JORDAN AND ITS FUTURE HORIZONS

The water security dilemma of Jordan is one of the most important national and strategic issues facing Jordan. The significance and challenges of this issue are even increasing with time passing, as water resources are running scarce. This paper presents a review of such dilemma, its future horizons, and what is being achieved in the short, medium, or long terms in this regard.

An overview of Jordan's Economic and Political Landscape 2022

It seems that data and hopes demonstrate heading towards a new status of recovery and rise in the political and economic aspects in Jordan. In such context, it is important to consider some features and difficulties which the remining months of 2022 has on the economic and political levels.

A Detailed Reading in the West Bank Local Elections

This paper tackles the results of the second round in the local Palestinian elections within the West Bank which were held on March 26th 2022. The results attempt to present a detailed reading where they assume that these elections acquire political dimensions in the Palestinian Status and they will have consequences on the future of the political conditions particularly in the West Bank.

The Government of Impossible Balances: Scenarios and Policies

This paper addresses the scenarios after the Knesset and the left-wing Meretz Party member, Ghaida Zoabi's, resigned from Israel's government coalition, then retracted her resignation, as well as the

What is new in Jordan's war on drugs?

This paper addresses challenges on Jordan's northern borders, especially in light of talk of a Russian withdrawal, which may strengthen the control of Iranian-backed groups responsible for cross-border drug smuggling.

The Electoral Indecisiveness: when a President Becomes a Lame Horse

This op-ed tackles the presidential and parliamentary elections held in a number of countries in previous years, both in Europe and in countries in the Middle East, and how small or novel parties, influenced by the elections results, became obstacles facing the traditional parties while forming governments, as in the past.

What’s after the Decision to Dissolve Knesset?

This paper addresses the decision of the Israeli Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett's, to dissolute the Israeli Knesset, and head towards early parliamentary elections, after he failed to pass (Extending judicial proceedings in the West Bank) law. This paper also addresses the future of that law in light such situation, the nature of the anticipatory context of that decision, and its main objectives. As well as possible last-minute options for the future of the government coalition in Israel.

China’s Strategy in the Middle East from an Analytical Perspective

This analytical perspective addresses the ways and methods of Chinese engagement in the Middle East, building China's partnerships with various countries in that region. It also addresses the nature and future of China's presence in the region.

Biden in the Middle East: Searching for a New Regional Equation

This paper presents a reading of the nature of current U.S. foreign policy interactions with the Middle East environment. With a critical method, this paper reviews the most significant features of President Joe Biden's trip to the region. The paper also argues the fallacies of U.S. withdrawal and the emergence of a multipolar world. The paper is concluded in demonstrating the importance of regional balance to reduce -or neutralize- the major conflicts.

Where would the Lebanese-Israeli Maritime Conflict Lead to?

This paper estimates the legal position of the maritime border dispute between Lebanon and Israel, which is related to the right to use the resources in the disputed waters. This paper also considers to the possible scenarios of this conflict, in accordance with domestic and external considerations, within which Lebanon and Israel are taking their moves.

The Necessary Balance: The Rise of China and U.S. Control

This paper addresses the impact of accelerated Chinese growth on the status of the international system, at a moment when talk is more on the need to create a balance between the rise of China and the current U.S. position. This paper addresses the Chinese strategy in managing this rise, and the U.S. strategy in confronting it.

A NEW PHASE IN HAMAS POLITICAL PROJECT

This paper touches upon "Hamas" Movement's attitude towards the escalation between Israel and the Islamic Jihad Movement in Gaza Strip following the assassination of military leaders as well as a group of activists in the Islamic Jihad Movement, and it addresses the reasons for Hamas's neutrality towards military intervention against the Israeli attacks, and its demands to stop them without threatening to respond or participate in the process.

The Middle East from the perspective of Chinese national security

Policy Analysis| The paper sheds light on the Chinese national Security Law, in an attempt to determine the position of the Middle East in the calculations of this Law. The paper explains the differences this Law has comparing to its American counterpart of a geostrategic nature. The paper foresees the future of the Chinese presence, impacted by the international competition with Washington, the matter which necessarily requires examining the mechanisms of possible "clash" between China and the United States in the region, and the repercussions of such clash on regional security.

Ramon Airport: Consequences and Effect on Jordan

Policy analysis| This analysis tackles the Israeli announcement of launching the Palestinian West Bank passengers' first flights to Cyprus through Ramon Airport. The analysis seeks to analyze the consequences on Jordan, as well as the direct and indirect implications, via analyzing the Israeli motives, and reviewing the undeclared interests of the relevant parties.

Is China’s Military Response to Pelosi's Visit Over?

Position Assessment | This paper addresses the potential possibilities of China’s military response to the visit of U.S. Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. This assessment also examines the seriousness of Washington and Beijing’s statements toward the Taiwan and the role of economic relations in reducing tensions.

Alexander Dugin and the "Eurasian" System: Philosophy and Strategy

This paper tackles the attempted assassination of the Russian political philosopher Alexander Dugin, seeking to find the reasons behind such an attempt by analyzing Dugin’s philosophical and strategic system, and its role in guiding Russian policies.

Islamic Jihad: A Time Bomb in a Fragile Reality

This paper provides an interpretation for the reasons of the Israeli escalation against Islamic Jihad in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and assesses the repercussions of that escalation.

Did Jordanian-Syrian Relation Pass Narcotics Test?

This paper examines the developments of Jordanian-Syrian relations in facing a shared challenge: transnational drug gangs, which has proven to be an important factor in shaping the nature and premises of their joint agreements. From this viewpoint, the paper assesses the strengths and weaknesses in the understandings between the two countries.

How will the Arab Parties' Alliances Change the Israeli Landscape in the Upcoming Elections?

Policy Analysis| This paper addresses the issue of Arab parties in Israel running for the twenty-fifth Knesset elections, with three separate electoral lists. The paper seeks to extrapolate the expected results of such running, by analyzing the reality of these parties, as well as their electoral experiences, in the light of calculations of interests and concessions.

The Reality of the Educational Strategies in Jordan.. Stagnant Majors as a Model

National Policy Paper | Unemployment crisis is putting pressure on Jordan's national security in several directions, turning the goal of containing unemployment into a cross-government priority, for which meetings and forums were held, strategies were announced, and plans- that in part carried a theoretical change in the methodology of treatment, were announced.

The Impossible Mission: Why Is the Status of Solution Sought in Iraq?

Op-ed | This op-ed discusses all parties’ efforts to reach a consensus on a solution to the Iraqi crisis. While it seems elusive or unlikely to happen, a consensus on a solution may not be a demand in itself, whether in case the dispute reflects a healthy situation recognized even in ancient democracies or that the absence of a desired solution is fueling the situation of instability, carrying harbingers of broader unrest.

An In-depth Look at the Chinese President's Speech at the Twentieth Congress of the Communist Party

Policy Analysis | This article provides an interpretation of the Chinese President Xi Jinping's speech, by which he inaugurated the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party. The interpretation comes across four dimensions: domestic politics, the military, security, and foreign policy dimensions. The paper also discusses the hypothesis which says that the Congress is considered a partial turning point, after which Beijing will turn to domestic development, neutralizing its international dissonance with Washington as much as possible.

Elections to the Twenty-fifth Knesset: Lists and Scenarios

POSITION ASSESSMENT | This article outlines the scenarios of the next Israeli government, which will be realized by the elections for the twenty-fifth Knesset, scheduled for the first of November, in light of the great polarization situation among the candidate lists, and the expected neck-to-neck number of votes for each list.

Religious Zionism: Where is the Israeli Political Landscape Heading?

Position assessment | This paper addresses the rise of “religious Zionism” in Israel after the recent Knesset elections, a rise that will impose changes on the Israeli domestic landscape with repercussions on the Palestinian cause as well as regional and international levels.

Insights into the Motivation and Causes Fueling Iran’s Continued Protests

Policy Analysis | This paper examines the economic, social, and geopolitical dimensions of the ongoing Iranian protests since the death of young Mahsa Amini that are likely to play a major role in the spread and continuation of the protests.

The Cosmic Duel between Atlantic and Eurasianism: A Reading in the Book "Postmodern Geopolitics"

Postmodern Political Geography combines a strategic analytical reading with a forward-looking vision, based on a modern geopolitical methodology, with a clear Eurasian background in terms of critical philosophical theoretical premises, interest in the Russian value system, and political ambition.

The Three Summits Ping Attended in Saudi Arabia: A Strategic Shift or a Geopolitical Maneuver?

Policy Analysis | This analysis examines Chinese President Xi Jinping’s three summits he attended in Riyadh, bilaterally at the levels of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, and then Arab countries. The analysis highlights the most prominent features of Saudi-Sino relations, in light of considering such relations a strategic shift in the two countries’ foreign policy on a hand, or as a geopolitical maneuver in the face of U.S. regional and international policies on the other.

Diplomacy of Relief and Diplomacy of Disaster: How Countries are Reshaping their Foreign Relations?

Policy Analysis | The analysis shades light on the disaster and relief diplomacy, by providing an explanatory introduction to the two terms, focusing on the concept of disaster diplomacy by reviewing previous experiences, in order to reach an interpretation to the current scene after the recent earthquakes in Turkiye and Syria. Despite how tragic such event was, this analysis examines the extent to which the two countries are able to improve their domestic and foreign reality.

The Regional Situation Following the Restoration of Saudi-Iranian Relations

Policy Analysis | This analysis addresses the announcement of the restoration of Saudi-Iranian relations, sponsored by China, with an emphasis on the underlying motivations of both nations. Additionally, the analysis evaluates the impact of this announcement on the regional situation and its influence on a range of issues in the region.

Saudi-China Relations From the Perspective of Political Economy and Energy Geopolitics

This analysis deals with Saudi-China relations from the perspective of political economy and geopolitics of energy. It touches on the rapid growth between the two countries in various fields, the latest of which was Riyadh hosting the 10th Arab-Chinese Business Conference nearly six months after China’s president held three summits with leaders from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf and Arab countries.

What does the Development of the Palestinian Armed Factions’ Capabilities Reflect?

This assessment deals with the development of the military capabilities of the Palestinian armed factions in the West Bank. A growth in the military infrastructure of these factions may be related to attempts by non-West Bank parties to achieve a new deterrence reality against Israel.

Rare and Strategic Elements in Jordan: Opportunities and Challenges

This policy analysis examines Jordan’s efforts to achieve a real transformation in the mining sector by exploring rare and strategic elements of earth. This analysis also discusses the urgent need to expand this sector, and the challenges facing the extraction of these rare elements.

Niger Coup: Complexities and Geopolitical Implications

A position assessment that addresses the military coup in Niger, the nature of the scenes that preceded and accompanied such a coup, and the subsequent repercussions. The position assessment addresses the possibilities of an African and international response, and the difficulties associated with the overall procedures towards Niger, whether such procedures are peaceful or military.

Could Hezbollah’s Tents Lead to a Military Escalation with Israel?

This position paper addresses the issue of Hezbollah’s tents in Shebaa Farms, and the questions raised about the concept of Mutual Deterrence between Hezbollah and Israel. The paper also discusses Hezbollah’s pursuit of a set of goals that intersect with Iranian political and security considerations, as well as with Lebanese domestic circumstances.

The Emergence—and the Required Juggling Act—of a Potential Statesman

How the Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani is navigating between the West and Iran?

American Military Movements on the Borders of Iraq and Syria: A Preventive Buildup or a Complex Military Operation?

An assessment of the situation: Addressing the United States’ reinforcement of its military presence in the Middle East by sending more military equipment and soldiers, as well as the military movements of American battalions in Iraq and Syria. These movements raise questions about the “Biden Doctrine,” especially with the possibility that a military operation in the near future might be launched pursuant to a U.S. plan.

Issues of Disagreement and their Interactions between the Government and the Army in Israel

This Position Assessment addresses the discord between the governmental body and the military institution within Israel. It also deals with the public manifestation of this discord in several stances regarding domestic and foreign realities. Furthermore, the Position Assessment explores the implications and ramifications of these issues.

Will the G20 Summit Mark a New Turning Point in the Global Order?

A position assessment paper on the latest G20 Summit held in India. The main themes of the paper address contentious issues among the summit parties, such as the Ukrainian crisis, the gradual phasing out of fossil fuels, and debt restructuring. The paper indicates that the summit marked a new turning point both in the relations among its members and in the future of traditional international blocs.

Position Assessment: Potential Pathways of Conflict between Hamas and Israel

some of days of war have passed, yet the possible consequences remain enigmatic to observers, as this conflict presents multiple potential outcomes at the Israeli, Palestinian, regional, and international levels. This position assessment aims to explore the most likely scenarios for future developments.

Opinion Poll: How do Jordan’s Opinion Leaders Perceive the War on Gaza Strip?

An opinion poll conducted by STRATEGIECS Institute, inspecting the opinions of leaders in Jordan about the war on the Gaza Strip.

Scenarios of the War on Gaza After the Truce

This position assessment addresses a set of likely scenarios for the course of the war on the Gaza Strip after the November truce. These scenarios are related to a set of indicators and data, some of which are associated with Israel and Gaza, while others are regional and international.

How do Political Islam Groups See the War in Gaza?

Despite the shared roots of political Islam groups, whether in terms of their origin or ideology, their positions on the attacks carried out by Palestinian factions in the Gaza envelope have varied between support and opposition. Therefore, this paper aims to assess the positions of these groups regarding the war in Gaza.

The United States: The De-Escalation Efforts and the Prospects of Escalation in the Middle East

Policy Analysis: This paper discusses the United States policy and pillars towards the war in the Gaza Strip, and the U.S. position on the secondary arenas of escalation. It also presents a new idea about the signs of independence of those arenas in terms of their goals and objectives from the main arena of war in the Gaza Strip, the matter that poses new challenges for the United States in pursuing unified policies.

Israeli Government Scenarios for the Day After the War

The Israeli government coalition has been in a state of crisis since its formation in December 2022. This ongoing multifaceted crisis stems from the disparate components of the government coalition, as well as its domestic and foreign policies. In addition to this are the new crises produced by the war in Gaza. This paper addresses the Israeli government’s scenarios for the day after the war.

Map of the Militarization of the Red Sea and the Features of Upcoming Conflicts

This policy analysis addresses the U.S. and Western military presence in the Red Sea in response to Houthi attacks. It also addresses several questions about the implications and motives behind the unprecedented military mobilization in the Red Sea. For instance, is it proportional to the scale of the Houthi threats to international trade?

How Will Washington Respond to the January 28 Attacks?

This situation assessment addresses the attack by Iranian-backed armed groups on “Tower 22,” a secret strategic U.S. military base. This unprecedented event led to the death of three American soldiers and had several implications for the region witnessing an escalation that could expand according to the nature of America’s response to the attack.

U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq: A Containment of Escalation or an Open Invitation for an Escalation of Terrorism?

This policy analysis discusses the possibilities that may ensue from the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and the position of the Iraqi government regarding this withdrawal. It also touches on the nature of future relations between Washington and Baghdad against the backdrop of attacks between armed factions in Iraq and U.S. forces.

Challenges facing investors in entering the Iraqi market

An interview with the businessman and Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the STRATEGIECS Institute for Strategic Studies and Research, Hassan Ismaik, with the Iraqi journalist, Ghaiyath Daham, in the “Business Game” podcast.

Post-War: Scenarios for the Palestinian Political Landscape

This position assessment addresses the scenarios of the political landscape in Palestine during the post-war phase in Gaza related to the moves and positions of Israel, the United States, and Hamas. It also addresses the challenges facing their plans.

U.S. Pier in Gaza and the Chances of Successful Delivery of Aid By Sea

A situation assessment on the temporary pier in the Gaza Strip, which the U.S. military is building to enable the Gaza Strip to receive large shipments of aid, and the challenges facing plans to deliver aid by sea.

Why Has the Iran-Israel Conflict Moved to Direct Confrontation?

In the context of the Gaza conflict, Israel, guided by the “Octopus Doctrine” formulated in 2018, has dealt with the perils and challenges posed by the “Unity of Arenas”. The Israeli doctrine serves to intensify the pressures exerted on Iran, instead of engaging with a broad range of armed factions. The underlying premise of Israel’s strategy, as dictated by this Doctrine, is to compel Iran to put pressure on its proxies to cease their escalation against Israel. Concurrently, this Doctrine aims to diminish the strategic value these factions perceived by the Iranian mentality, given their role as the forward defense line of Iran’s territories.

The Changing American Position on Israeli Government’s Management of The War in The Gaza Strip

The disagreements between the American administration and the Israeli government regarding the war in the Gaza Strip are a continuation of the apparent contradictions in the visions and policies between the two parties since the formation of the Israeli government at the end of December 2022, which U.S. President Joe Biden described as “the most right-wing in the history of Israel.” It is likely that these disagreements will continue between the two parties regarding their priorities during the coming period, but the deepening of this disagreement into the structure of the bilateral relations is unlikely.

The Paths of political Presence of Hamas Movement in Qatar

The choices of Hamas leaders to move from Qatar remain ambiguous and are limited to specific destinations: either Turkey, Iran, Lebanon, or Algeria. The question is: Which one is most likely—amd most preferred—to host Hamas leaders?

Have the Costs of the War in Gaza Become a Factor in Stopping It?

Aside from considering the achievements perceived by the parties involved in the Israel-Hamas war, the losses and risks associated with its continuation have become a factor in increasing the chances of reaching a ceasefire agreement. Therefore, a range of future scenarios should be taken into account.

Israeli War Cabinet Scenarios Following Gantz’s Resignation Warning

Disputes within Israel’s war cabinet raise several questions about the impact political parties will have on the future of the cabinet, its unity, existence, and, more broadly, on the future of the Israeli government. The war cabinet and the government of Israel have become significantly tied to the war variables in Gaza and the positions of the actors involved, foremost of which is the United States. This ushers in three scenarios for the future of the war cabinet: it will carry on its work, it will dissolve while the coalition government remains, or it will dissolve leading to early elections.

How Israel Views the International Court of Justice’s Emergency Measures Against It

The International Court of Justice’s interim ruling in the South Africa case accusing Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip carries several ramifications for Tel Aviv, especially on the domestic level. This paper explains how the political and military powers in Israel perceive that decision.

Will the “Response” conference in Jordan overcome the complexity of aid flow and reconstruction?

This position paper addresses the Emergency Humanitarian Response Conference in Gaza, which was held in Jordan. The conference discussed several key areas related to determining the mechanisms of this response and the main aspects of its coordination among the components of the international community.

Escalation Development Paths Between Hezbollah and Israel

Perceptions of Iran’s Political Scene in Upcoming Presidential Election

The upcoming presidential election in Iran is of particular importance given the internal and external issues surrounding Iranian politics. Foremost among them is the question of who will succeed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, how will his vision—and the next president’s—shape Iran’s political system 80 years after the 1978–1979 revolution, and how will regional and international developments and their implications affect Iran’s security and diplomatic policies.

The European Landscape After the Rise of the Left in the UK and France

This paper addresses the result of the elections in France and the United Kingdom and how they will affect future elections in various European countries. It also examines the overall European politics toward the current files.

Houthi Escalation Amid Growing Iranian Interest in the Mediterranean

Iran is attempting to encourage its allies to increase their activity in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, Iranian perceptions of their ability to operate and exert influence in the region face several constraints and complexities. These include geographical factors, military capabilities, and the inability to control escalation and its repercussions.

Turkey and Syria Inching Closer Toward Resuming Good Relations

Turkish-Syrian relations have entered a fresh phase of discussion initiatives, but the path of rapprochement between them is not new. Its manifestations have been apparent since 2022. But now the resumption of relations between the two counties has become a significant objective for Russia.

Wadi al-Kabir Attack: The Event Indicators and the Symbolism of Place

This position assessment addresses the terrorist attack on a mosque in the capital city of Muscat in the Wadi al-Kabir region, covering the implications related to the choice of location and its symbolism, the perpetrators’ identities, their motives, and the future repercussions of the attack.

Palestinian Rights: Israel Versus the World

The International Court of Justice’s advisory opinion on the illegality of the Israeli presence in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967 provides a foundation for the growing political and legal movement within the international community regarding the Palestinian cause. However, it also faces challenges due to Israeli action and divisions within the Palestinian arena.

Ultimate Test of Deterrence: The Israeli Assassinations of Two Axis of Resistance Leaders

The assassination of Fouad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh put the region in extraordinary circumstances, with the Axis of Resistance acknowledging the significance of the two murders and its members threat to retaliate. Consequently, the region should expect four impending retaliatory attacks from Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.

The Local and Regional Landscape After Hasina’s Resignation in Bangladesh

It’s too early to judge whether stability has been achieved in Bangladesh and whether a new political system has been established following Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and the formation of a temporary government. Moreover, predicting the decline of the parties from the previous phase seems unlikely, especially the Awami League, which has governed the country since the 1970s.

The Rafah Crossing: Who Will Control It and Why It’s Important

The Rafah border crossing gains its significance on the world stage from being the only gateway into and out of the Gaza Strip for both its citizens and the delivery of life-saving goods and humanitarian aid. This paper presents future scenarios for the management of the crossing, which could be an issue with the arrangements for the day after the war or what may be proposed for implementation beforehand that will serve as a prelude to the future management structure of the Gaza Strip.

What Are the Chances of Success for the New Round of Negotiations to End the War in the Gaza Strip?

The chances of success for the new round of negotiations to end the war in Gaza do not seem very high, at least when it comes to reaching a comprehensive agreement. However, the American insistence on continuing the negotiations, along with the seriousness of the Egyptian and Qatari mediators, may push the warring parties towards an agreement on a temporary humanitarian ceasefire.

Will the Presidency of Masoud Pezeshkian Change Iran’s Domestic and Foreign Policies?

The Iranian president’s ability to implement new programs is limited considering the failed efforts of the three previous reformist presidents. None of them managed to bring about significant changes in Iran’s domestic and foreign policies. Moreover, it is likely that Pezeshkian agenda will face strong opposition from the conservatives who dominate the parliament and the Assembly of Experts after their victory in the March 2024 elections.

How Can Israel’s “Summer Camps” Operation in the Northern West Bank Be Interpreted?

The Israeli security and political objectives behind the military operation in the northern West Bank and Jordan Valley are multifaceted and interconnected. These goals are timed to align with confrontations on other fronts, particularly in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. Extending beyond the Palestinian context, the potential dangers of the situation in the West Bank could also impact Jordan.

How Can Jordanian Political Parties Overcome the Pressures They Face?

The Jordanian political parties, established in less than a year, are set to compete in the upcoming parliamentary elections, where they are expected to play a pivotal role that should gradually develop in future elections. This places self-imposed pressures on the parties to keep pace with the modernization process. This paper will explore a range of policies and practices specific to the initial phase of this experience—running for office and reaching the parliament—in a way that avoids pitfalls and mistakes that could obstruct their progress.

Pezeshkian in Iraq: Political Maneuver or Strategic Visit?

The visit of Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian to Iraq raises several questions about the future of Iraqi-Iranian relations. Will Iraq be facing fundamental and decisive changes? An analysis of the factors and variables, however, suggests that changes in Iraq will not affect its political or security relations with Iran. The relationship between the two countries is deeply intertwined and transcends political changes and internal or external conditions.