Analyses
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Palestinian-Israeli conflict
Trump’s Plan: Second Phase Scenarios
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Trump’s Plan: Second Phase Scenarios
With the launch of the second phase negotiations of U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, the two-year war is entering a new stage that may bring about unexpected developments. While attention is focused on the major issues on the negotiating table, it seems that the fine details within the more complex files may prove decisive in shaping a new reality on the ground—and perhaps a political and security reality that does not align either with current expectations or the declared terms of the plan.
Will “Trump’s Plan” Succeed in Achieving a Ceasefire and Peace?
U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to establish a ceasefire in Gaza faces complex challenges, including Hamas’s stance and the plan’s own structural and organizational weaknesses, making its implementation difficult. Although presented as a comprehensive framework to end the war, Hamas’s response and the U.S. welcome of it have effectively dismantled the plan’s unity, turning it into a gradual approach that begins with releasing detainees in exchange for halting military operations, while postponing the remaining provisions to later negotiation phases. The plan also falls short of addressing Gaza’s urgent humanitarian needs, which risks triggering indirect waves of displacement. Given the plan’s complexity and the failure of previous gradual approaches, the future of the war and the fate of the Gaza Strip remain open to multiple scenarios.
The Outcomes of the Doha Emergency Summit and the Missed Arab Opportunity
The most important criterion for judging the outcomes of the Arab-Islamic summit in Doha this September remains the extent to which they are reflected in Israeli behavior. While the summit could serve as a barrier against Israel repeating attacks on Qatar or any other Arab state, it will not alter the developments on the ground, nor will it play a role in reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East—a matter of utmost priority and significance at both the Arab and regional levels.
Gaza’s Society: Roles and Effectiveness in Light of the Political and Security Vacuum
Israel has systematically worked to dismantle Hamas’s governing structure in Gaza, targeting its administrative and security institutions. This has left a vacuum in the management of civil and security affairs, prompting clans and local committees to assume temporary service and organizational roles in the absence of a central alternative. At the same time, Israel seeks to employ these formations within a model of “utilization without empowerment” in an attempt to replicate the experience of the Palestinian Village Leagues in an updated form—without offering any organized political alternative. This reflects a fragile reality in which societal necessity intersects with Israeli calculations.
The American-Israeli Proposal and the Shift Towards a Unilateral Path in the Gaza Strip
The Israeli-American track is witnessing a qualitative shift with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff announcing a comprehensive “all or nothing” agreement to end the war in Gaza. The deal includes the release of detainees, the disarmament of Hamas, reconstruction, and the imposition of an international administration led by Washington—a unilateral course that sidelines Hamas from any negotiating role. The deal coincides with an Israeli plan to occupy the Gaza Strip in stages, impose security control, and establish an alternative civilian administration. This approach aims to enforce “day-after” conditions that ensure Israeli objectives are a fait accompli.
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s Role in the Post-War Gaza Equation
The humanitarian landscape in the Gaza Strip is undergoing a significant transformation with the launch of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). Overseen by former U.S. military officers, the GHF provides aid and security to support the Israeli strategy of dismantling Hamas’s rule and reshaping governance in the Strip. Amid the declining role of UN agencies, the GHF has emerged as an invaluable tool for reengineering the population landscape through projects such as the "Humanitarian City" and “Safe Bubbles”.
Operation Gideon’s Chariots: Is It the Last Stage of the War?
Operation Gideon’s Chariots marks an unprecedented Israeli escalation in the Gaza Strip, aimed at dismantling Hamas and redrawing the region’s demographic and military map, amid mounting international and regional pressure. Despite its ambition to end the war, Israel faces internal and external challenges that could turn the operation into a critical turning point: either a decisive resolution, a prolonged war of attrition, or a political breakthrough that brings an end to the ongoing conflict.
The Weapons of the Lebanese Hezbollah in the Post-War Reality
Lebanon is witnessing profound transformations resulting from the repercussions of the Gaza conflict, which has inflicted damage on Iran’s axis in the region, including Hezbollah. It seems that there is a shared understanding among the Lebanese, as well as regional and international actors, of the need to seize the moment to dismantle Hezbollah’s remaining weapons. In turn, Hezbollah feels compelled to make significant strategic concessions to preserve its political activities.
The Resumption of the War on Gaza: New Equation for Its Risks and Objectives
Israel’s resumption of military operations in the Gaza Strip comes after the failure of negotiations. It reflects strategic objectives that go beyond merely responding to the deadlock, aiming instead to redraw goals and reshape the geographical and demographic structure of the Strip through displacement, occupation, and the imposition of military rule.