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Trump’s Plan: Second Phase Scenarios
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Will the Shifting Orientations of Iraqi Voters Decide the Upcoming Elections?
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The Syrian Situation Between Centralization and Decentralization Options
Palestinian-Israeli conflict
Will “Trump’s Plan” Succeed in Achieving a Ceasefire and Peace?
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Trump’s Plan: Second Phase Scenarios
With the launch of the second phase negotiations of U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, the two-year war is entering a new stage that may bring about unexpected developments. While attention is focused on the major issues on the negotiating table, it seems that the fine details within the more complex files may prove decisive in shaping a new reality on the ground—and perhaps a political and security reality that does not align either with current expectations or the declared terms of the plan.
Will “Trump’s Plan” Succeed in Achieving a Ceasefire and Peace?
U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to establish a ceasefire in Gaza faces complex challenges, including Hamas’s stance and the plan’s own structural and organizational weaknesses, making its implementation difficult. Although presented as a comprehensive framework to end the war, Hamas’s response and the U.S. welcome of it have effectively dismantled the plan’s unity, turning it into a gradual approach that begins with releasing detainees in exchange for halting military operations, while postponing the remaining provisions to later negotiation phases. The plan also falls short of addressing Gaza’s urgent humanitarian needs, which risks triggering indirect waves of displacement. Given the plan’s complexity and the failure of previous gradual approaches, the future of the war and the fate of the Gaza Strip remain open to multiple scenarios.
The Outcomes of the Doha Emergency Summit and the Missed Arab Opportunity
The most important criterion for judging the outcomes of the Arab-Islamic summit in Doha this September remains the extent to which they are reflected in Israeli behavior. While the summit could serve as a barrier against Israel repeating attacks on Qatar or any other Arab state, it will not alter the developments on the ground, nor will it play a role in reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East—a matter of utmost priority and significance at both the Arab and regional levels.
How Can Israel’s “Summer Camps” Operation in the Northern West Bank Be Interpreted?
The Israeli security and political objectives behind the military operation in the northern West Bank and Jordan Valley are multifaceted and interconnected. These goals are timed to align with confrontations on other fronts, particularly in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. Extending beyond the Palestinian context, the potential dangers of the situation in the West Bank could also impact Jordan.
What Are the Chances of Success for the New Round of Negotiations to End the War in the Gaza Strip?
The chances of success for the new round of negotiations to end the war in Gaza do not seem very high, at least when it comes to reaching a comprehensive agreement. However, the American insistence on continuing the negotiations, along with the seriousness of the Egyptian and Qatari mediators, may push the warring parties towards an agreement on a temporary humanitarian ceasefire.
Palestinian Individual Operations Since the Outbreak of War in the Gaza Strip
This paper provides a first-of-its-kind analytical reading of individual operations in the West Bank, Jerusalem, and Israel to expand the understanding of these incidents. It also examines their frequency, types, and scope during the war in the Gaza Strip, and compare them with previous years since they became a case study in 2015
Palestinian Rights: Israel Versus the World
The International Court of Justice’s advisory opinion on the illegality of the Israeli presence in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967 provides a foundation for the growing political and legal movement within the international community regarding the Palestinian cause. However, it also faces challenges due to Israeli action and divisions within the Palestinian arena.
U.S. Pier in Gaza and the Chances of Successful Delivery of Aid By Sea
A situation assessment on the temporary pier in the Gaza Strip, which the U.S. military is building to enable the Gaza Strip to receive large shipments of aid, and the challenges facing plans to deliver aid by sea.
Post-War: Scenarios for the Palestinian Political Landscape
This position assessment addresses the scenarios of the political landscape in Palestine during the post-war phase in Gaza related to the moves and positions of Israel, the United States, and Hamas. It also addresses the challenges facing their plans.