Situation Assessment
Arab policy
The Syrian Unity Predicament: Files of Sovereignty, Security, and the Kurdish Issue
International and Global Trends
Russia and the Restoration of Strategic Presence in the Changing Syrian Landscape
The Palestinian–Israeli Conflict
The Outcomes of the Doha Emergency Summit and the Missed Arab Opportunity
The Palestinian–Israeli Conflict
The American-Israeli Proposal and the Shift Towards a Unilateral Path in the Gaza Strip
Countering Terrorism and Extremism
Will ISIS Succeed in Hijacking Syria from the Transitional Government?
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The Syrian-Iraqi Border: Reshaping the Geopolitical Space of the Middle East
The Syrian-Iraqi border is entering a new phase marked by strategic competition and sharp ideological divergence. Its significance now extends far beyond a simple bilateral boundary, turning it into a geopolitical flashpoint that may shape the region’s future landscape. Despite a period of relative calm, the stability along the border remains fragile and temporary, while the likelihood of tension or escalation—driven by domestic developments in both countries or by broader regional and international shifts—remains conspicuously high.
The Syrian Unity Predicament: Files of Sovereignty, Security, and the Kurdish Issue
The transfer of power in Syria in 2024 did not achieve the desired reconciliation, as the conflict between the interim government and the Syrian Democratic Forces undermined the March 10 agreement and deepened the division over the form of the state between centralization and decentralization. The ambiguity in the agreement and the regional and international interventions, especially from Türkiye, the United States, France, Russia, and Israel, have also contributed to complicating the scene and preventing a stable settlement, which makes the future of Syria linked to the government’s ability to establish a comprehensive and binding social contract that ensures the participation of all components.
Russia and the Restoration of Strategic Presence in the Changing Syrian Landscape
The regime change that Syria experienced in December 2024 led to a radical—and also chaotic—reordering of the Syrian geopolitical landscape. One of the main questions raised at the time concerned whether Russia would accept the unfolding scenario, abandon its previous allied regime, and face the potential loss of its strategic and vital bases on the Mediterranean coast, which it had long maintained.
The Outcomes of the Doha Emergency Summit and the Missed Arab Opportunity
The most important criterion for judging the outcomes of the Arab-Islamic summit in Doha this September remains the extent to which they are reflected in Israeli behavior. While the summit could serve as a barrier against Israel repeating attacks on Qatar or any other Arab state, it will not alter the developments on the ground, nor will it play a role in reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East—a matter of utmost priority and significance at both the Arab and regional levels.
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The American-Israeli Proposal and the Shift Towards a Unilateral Path in the Gaza Strip
The Israeli-American track is witnessing a qualitative shift with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff announcing a comprehensive “all or nothing” agreement to end the war in Gaza. The deal includes the release of detainees, the disarmament of Hamas, reconstruction, and the imposition of an international administration led by Washington—a unilateral course that sidelines Hamas from any negotiating role. The deal coincides with an Israeli plan to occupy the Gaza Strip in stages, impose security control, and establish an alternative civilian administration. This approach aims to enforce “day-after” conditions that ensure Israeli objectives are a fait accompli.
Will ISIS Succeed in Hijacking Syria from the Transitional Government?
Since the fall of the previous regime in December 2024, ISIS has been taking advantage of the fragility of the Syrian transitional authority and the overlapping structure of its various factions with a renewed surge in activity. Despite intensified international strikes against it, ISIS has managed to carry out sophisticated attacks reposition itself amid the complex political and security challenges facing the interim government. The situation is further complicated by the emergence of even more extremist groups and the erosion of boundaries between regular forces and armed extremists. Meanwhile, the international community’s support for the new government is tied to its seriousness in combating terrorism and extremism—thus placing a structural challenge on the government’s security institutions and internal alliances.
The Arab Stance Amid Regional Variables
The war in the Gaza Strip and its repercussions on Lebanon and Syria, culminating in its spillover into the Iranian heartland in June 2025, marked a turning point in the balance of power that has prevailed since 2003. This shift resulted in the decline of the Iranian influence and the emergence of Israel as a central actor, and it rearranged the Arab alliances that began to fill the vacuum left by Tehran’s retreat. Worried about Israel turning into a dominant power, Arab states seek to re-engineer the regional balance to formulate a system based on cooperation rather than influence.
How the B-2 Stealth Bomber Changed the Course of U.S.–Iran Negotiations
The U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, carried out as part of “Operation Midnight Hammer,” marked a fundamental turning point in the trajectory of negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The United States shifted from a strategy of economic pressure and multilateral diplomacy to the direct use of military force, in unprecedented alignment with Israel’s approach. Today, Iran stands at a critical crossroads: either accept American-Israeli demands, or risk resuming its nuclear program and facing another wave of military escalation.
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s Role in the Post-War Gaza Equation
The humanitarian landscape in the Gaza Strip is undergoing a significant transformation with the launch of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). Overseen by former U.S. military officers, the GHF provides aid and security to support the Israeli strategy of dismantling Hamas’s rule and reshaping governance in the Strip. Amid the declining role of UN agencies, the GHF has emerged as an invaluable tool for reengineering the population landscape through projects such as the "Humanitarian City" and “Safe Bubbles”.