Situation Assessment
International and Global Trends
Israeli-U.S. Military Operation Scenarios and Iranian Responses
Regional Trends
The Syrian-Iraqi Border: Reshaping the Geopolitical Space of the Middle East
Arab policy
The Syrian Unity Predicament: Files of Sovereignty, Security, and the Kurdish Issue
International and Global Trends
Russia and the Restoration of Strategic Presence in the Changing Syrian Landscape
The Palestinian–Israeli Conflict
The Outcomes of the Doha Emergency Summit and the Missed Arab Opportunity
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Scenarios for Israel’s Anticipated Strike on Iran
The world today is preoccupied with the anticipated Israeli response to recent Iranian attacks, which is expected to be disproportionate and comes with unexpected repercussions, especially after Israel put its response in the frame of strategic objectives.
Nasrallah’s Assassination Puts Hezbollah and the Unification of the arenas in a Critical Moment
The assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah puts the movement in a critical moment, exacerbating the damage to its military structure. This raises questions about Hezbollah’s position in confrontation with Israel, the Iranian approach toward its most important allies, and the stance of the other parties in the “Unification of the arenas.”
Intelligence Superiority Places the Escalation Between Israel and Hezbollah at a Turning Point
Israeli information and intelligence superiority has contributed to its deadly aim in striking several strategic targets of the Hezbollah Movement, both at its leadership and infrastructure. This paper seeks to analyze the Israeli strategy towards Hezbollah before and after the war in Gaza, which has significantly weakened the Movement’s capabilities and hindered its ability to respond proportionately and escalate in return.
Pezeshkian in Iraq: Political Maneuver or Strategic Visit?
The visit of Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian to Iraq raises several questions about the future of Iraqi-Iranian relations. Will Iraq be facing fundamental and decisive changes? An analysis of the factors and variables, however, suggests that changes in Iraq will not affect its political or security relations with Iran. The relationship between the two countries is deeply intertwined and transcends political changes and internal or external conditions.
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How Can Israel’s “Summer Camps” Operation in the Northern West Bank Be Interpreted?
The Israeli security and political objectives behind the military operation in the northern West Bank and Jordan Valley are multifaceted and interconnected. These goals are timed to align with confrontations on other fronts, particularly in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. Extending beyond the Palestinian context, the potential dangers of the situation in the West Bank could also impact Jordan.
Will the Presidency of Masoud Pezeshkian Change Iran’s Domestic and Foreign Policies?
The Iranian president’s ability to implement new programs is limited considering the failed efforts of the three previous reformist presidents. None of them managed to bring about significant changes in Iran’s domestic and foreign policies. Moreover, it is likely that Pezeshkian agenda will face strong opposition from the conservatives who dominate the parliament and the Assembly of Experts after their victory in the March 2024 elections.
What Are the Chances of Success for the New Round of Negotiations to End the War in the Gaza Strip?
The chances of success for the new round of negotiations to end the war in Gaza do not seem very high, at least when it comes to reaching a comprehensive agreement. However, the American insistence on continuing the negotiations, along with the seriousness of the Egyptian and Qatari mediators, may push the warring parties towards an agreement on a temporary humanitarian ceasefire.
The Rafah Crossing: Who Will Control It and Why It’s Important
The Rafah border crossing gains its significance on the world stage from being the only gateway into and out of the Gaza Strip for both its citizens and the delivery of life-saving goods and humanitarian aid. This paper presents future scenarios for the management of the crossing, which could be an issue with the arrangements for the day after the war or what may be proposed for implementation beforehand that will serve as a prelude to the future management structure of the Gaza Strip.
The Local and Regional Landscape After Hasina’s Resignation in Bangladesh
It’s too early to judge whether stability has been achieved in Bangladesh and whether a new political system has been established following Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and the formation of a temporary government. Moreover, predicting the decline of the parties from the previous phase seems unlikely, especially the Awami League, which has governed the country since the 1970s.