Situation Assessment
International and Global Trends
Israeli-U.S. Military Operation Scenarios and Iranian Responses
Regional Trends
The Syrian-Iraqi Border: Reshaping the Geopolitical Space of the Middle East
Arab policy
The Syrian Unity Predicament: Files of Sovereignty, Security, and the Kurdish Issue
International and Global Trends
Russia and the Restoration of Strategic Presence in the Changing Syrian Landscape
The Palestinian–Israeli Conflict
The Outcomes of the Doha Emergency Summit and the Missed Arab Opportunity
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“Operation Iron Wall” and the Permanent Crisis Policies
The Israeli “Iron Wall” operation in the northern West Bank comes in light of several local, regional, and international developments. It followed two days after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip came into effect. The timing of this operation raises several questions, including the possibility of its scope expanding to include various areas of the West Bank, especially after being described by Israeli officials as part of a shift in the concept of security in the West Bank.
Complications of the Gaza Ceasefire Agreement
The ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip between Hamas and Israel consists of three basic stages, which will end the war that has been waged since October 7, 2023, by graduating the ceasefire from temporary to sustainable during the stages of the agreement. This agreement comes in light of a set of major regional and international variables, which prompted the parties to agree to it.
Scenarios of the UNIFIL Mission in Lebanon
Questions are increasing regarding the future of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), its effectiveness, and the available options for the international community to ensure its continuity or adjust its mandate. This paper addresses the possible scenarios for the fate of UNIFIL in terms of its role and presence.
War on Gaza: Israel’s Ban on UNRWA and the Challenges of Global Governance
Israel’s ban on UNRWA imposes severe humanitarian challenges on the beneficiaries of its services in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. It is considered a political and legal overstep in light of the agency’s mandate, history, and roles. Additionally, the ban highlights the issue of global governance and its ability to provide an appropriate response in an increasingly tense world, especially in terms of relief efforts and humanitarian aid.
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The Second Arab-Islamic Summit: Timing and Contextual Implications
The second Arab-Islamic summit reaffirmed the call for an immediate halt to the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, urging an end to their disastrous humanitarian impact on civilians. The summit also emphasized the need for continued coordination with the international community to put an end to Israel’s violations of international law and international humanitarian law, while warning of the grave risks associated with the escalation of the conflict and its regional and international ramifications.
How Gallant’s Dismissal Affects Israel’s War Management
The dismissal of Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant came at a critical moment, coinciding with Election Day in the United States, the presumed end of the war in Gaza, the start of a new conflict in Lebanon, and a security leaks crisis that led to removing key officials from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office.
Beyond Sinwar: Hamas at a Crossroads
The assassination of Yahya Sinwar places Hamas at a crossroads on various organizational, political, and military levels, especially in the context of the ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon. It also raises questions about the movement’s role in the aftermath of the war, which could significantly impact its alliances and relations both domestically and internationally.
The Military Operation in Jabalia and Post-War plans
Israel seeks to test a plan that involves a new social engineering of Gaza’s society by creating what it calls “humanitarian bubbles” and contracting private security companies to manage them, which posing a threat of structural changes to the geography and demographics of the Gaza Strip.
The Trajectories of the Israeli Ground Operation in Lebanon
The Israeli ground operation in southern Lebanon is shrouded in ambiguity from both sides. There is a lack of clarity regarding Israel’s objectives, the intended stopping point of its advance, and the next steps in the operation. Additionally, there are uncertainties about the latent capabilities that Hezbollah might employ to increase the costs of this incursion.