Situation Assessment
International Relations
The Islamabad Negotiations: Between the Conflict of Wills and Rules of Engagement
International and Global Trends
U.S.- Iran Negotiations: A State of Ambiguity and Uncertainty
Regional Trends
After the Assassination of Khamenei: Scenarios for the Third Supreme Leader
International and Global Trends
Israeli-U.S. Military Operation Scenarios and Iranian Responses
Regional Trends
The Syrian-Iraqi Border: Reshaping the Geopolitical Space of the Middle East
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The Syrian Geopolitical Scene Amid Israeli–Turkish Rivalry
The Syrian arena is witnessing an escalation in the Israeli–Turkish rivalry, driven by their divergent visions for the structure of the new power following the regime change in December 2024. While Türkiye rushed to support the transitional government and solidify its influence, Israel viewed the rise of Turkish-backed Salafist factions as a threat to its national security and to the regional balance of power. This reflects Syria’s transformation into a central arena for shaping the new Middle East order, though the rivalry remains within a “managed” framework.
Possible Post-War Transformations in Iran’s Domestic Landscape
The outcomes of the recent war indicate a decline in the image of the Iranian regime due to strategic setbacks and the risks posed by internal unrest. This may lead to a transformation in the structure of the regime, opening the door to potential shifts and various scenarios. These could include political paralysis resulting from an impasse between reformists and hardliners or a temporary agreement to manage the crisis. More dramatic possibilities also exist, such as the escalation of separatist unrest in minority regions, posing unprecedented challenges that may be difficult to overcome without fundamental solutions.
Scenarios of the Confrontation between Israel and Iran after the Ceasefire
The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, following the unprecedented confrontation, raises questions about the fate of the agreement and the scenarios for its Sustainability, especially given that both sides have adopted conflicting narratives regarding the objectives of the confrontation and the extent to which they were achieved. Although direct military operations have ceased, the agreement lacks the foundations necessary for its stabilization and continuity. It does not end the core hostility between the two sides but rather leads to three pivotal scenarios, the future balance of which will be shaped by several factors.
Scenarios for the Next Step Following U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities
The regional balance of power shifted with the direct entry of the United States into the military confrontation with Iran when it launched a precision airstrike on June 22, 2025 that targeted key nuclear installations. It pushes Iran to a critical crossroads: either contain the escalation or move toward a full-scale confrontation amid rising regional tensions and growing fears of a multi-front war.
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Pakistan’s Approach to the Israeli Military Operation Against Iran
The Pakistani stance toward the Israeli attacks on Iranian capabilities reveals a delicate balance between its political and diplomatic support for Iran and its hesitation to engage in direct military involvement. This caution stems from internal security complexities and regional geopolitical sensitivities. While Pakistan’s rhetoric reflects a rare escalation in relations between the two countries, it remains limited due to concerns over the potential rise in sectarian violence and the challenges posed by militant groups within Pakistan. As a result, Islamabad’s position remains cautious and balanced amid the repercussions of the war in Gaza and its strategic overlap with the Eastern axis.
The Paths of the Israeli Military Operation against Iranian Capabilities
The Israeli attacks targeting Iran’s military command structure and its defensive and offensive capabilities place the upcoming developments within a framework of several trends and trajectories. These can be outlined based on the overall events that have unfolded in the region and among Iran’s proxies since the outbreak of the war in the Gaza Strip. Additionally, the scale of the strikes suggests that they were not a passing event or merely a pressure tactic against Iran, but rather primarily aimed at consolidating the regional landscape and post-war order.
Foreign Fighters File in Syria: Between Entitlement and Risk
This paper addresses the complex situation of the foreign fighter file in Syria following the change of the former regime. It details their composition, explores the long-term challenges and risks arising from their integration into the new Syrian army, their leadership roles, and the implications of this both locally and internationally. It also touches on the issue of thousands of foreign fighters from ISIS who are currently detained. Lastly, the paper reviews future scenarios for these fighters, whether those integrated into the new state structures or the ISIS detainees held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Operation Gideon’s Chariots: Is It the Last Stage of the War?
Operation Gideon’s Chariots marks an unprecedented Israeli escalation in the Gaza Strip, aimed at dismantling Hamas and redrawing the region’s demographic and military map, amid mounting international and regional pressure. Despite its ambition to end the war, Israel faces internal and external challenges that could turn the operation into a critical turning point: either a decisive resolution, a prolonged war of attrition, or a political breakthrough that brings an end to the ongoing conflict.
The Security System in Syria: The legacy of the former regime versus the Idlib model
Syria is entering a major phase of security transformation following Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) rise to power in late 2024. The former security apparatuses, known for their extensive control and role in suppressing the opposition, have been dismantled. Despite talk of security reforms under the new government, there are concerns about the re-emergence of a centralized security authority that prioritizes regime protection at the expense of citizens’ rights, especially in light of weak oversight and the lack of genuine integration of all military factions inside Syria into the country’s new General Security Agency.