The debate between specialists in Middle Eastern, and particularly Israeli, affairs is intensifying, mainly about the deepening political crisis in Israeli - both on public and official levels - which could lead to the fourth parliamentary elections in less than two years. Here, the following questions arise strongly: What is the main disagreement between the power elites of Israel? How do we read the general framework of the Israeli political scene? What are the most prominent factors that have contributed to the exacerbation of the political crisis? Before delving into these questions, it is necessary to summarize the most prominent events in the Israeli political arena, at least since the last formation of the government on May 17, 2020.

Driven by a severe political crisis manifest in the holding of three parliamentary elections in less than a year and a half, and under the pressure of the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic and the associated economic and social crises, an Israeli coalition government was formed, however at the expense of scattering the Israeli political map from right to left. The Blue and White alliance split into its constituent parties; the Telem party led by Moshe Ya'alon, and the Yesh Atid party led by Yair Lapid. As for the bloc that remained led by Benny Gantz, it kept the name, Blue and White. Zvika Hawes and Yoaz Hendel also split from the Telem party and joined the Gantz camp after establishing the Derech Eretz party.

The left-wing Labor-Gesher-Meretz alliance disintegrated into three parties, as Gesher joined Netanyahu's camp, Labor joined Gantz's camp, while Meretz opted for the opposition. As for the right, the Yamena alliance led by former security minister Naftali Bennett left Netanyahu's camp, but this exit coincided with the split of The Jewish Home party led by Rafi Peretz from the aforementioned alliance to rejoin Netanyahu's camp. As usual, the Arab Joint List (the third power in the Knesset with 15 seats) remained outside the equation of influencing the formation of the Israeli executive authority.

It turns out that the new government was established over a fractured right, a divided center, and a left that can be considered outside the calculations of final political action.

The current crisis

The scenario of fourth elections was not unlikely ahead of the formation of the last government. Nevertheless, the conditions led to the announcement of a three-year emergency government, through which Gantz camp was granted a plenty of privileges given the small number of seats in the Knesset it has compared to Netanyahu's camp, as the premiership would rotate between Netanyahu and Gantz, with the latter’s camp given important ministerial portfolios; such as security, defense, foreign affairs, and others.

November 17, 2021 is the date on which Netanyahu must hand over the prime minister's position to his "partner", Benny Gantz, although there has been an indication that drew attention to the fact that Netanyahu does not intend to take this step, as he has not approved the state budget which was supposed to be approved before August 24. Gantz insists on approving a two-year budget (2020-2021), Netanyahu, however, digs on his heels on approving a budget for only one year (2020) under the pretext of the prevailing uncertainty, a tendency interpreted as the preservation of Netanyahu's right to dissolve the government - given that there is no budget for 2021 - before the transfer of its presidency to Gantz, and thus heading to a fourth election, as a matter of course.

Concerning the budget in particular, Zvika Hauser, of the Derech Eertz party, proposed in mid-August 2020 a bill to postpone the passing of the budget for another 120 days in order to avoid fourth elections. This was followed by the Knesset vote to approve the bill in the first reading, for although the bill needed approval during the second and third readings to become effective, it was adopted indirectly. However, no solution was found until the budget is passed, knowing that the deadline is on December 23, 2020. It is reported that Israel remained without a budget throughout the previous period of 2020, due to the repercussions of the political and health crises.

Many believe that the budget crisis is a fabricated one and has become a tool for political pressure between "partners" within the Israeli government. Among those who adopt this viewpoint is Shaul Meridor who resigned from his position as head of the budget department in the Ministry of Finance on August 30, 2020, due to what he described as economic turmoil and the Finance Minister Yisrael Katz’s disregard to different opinions.

Meridor, who held his position for nearly two decades, was not the only one who resigned from the Finance Ministry. It was preceded a month by the Accountant-General, Ronnie Hezekiah, and followed on October 11, 2020, by the resignation of the Director General, Keren Turner Eyal. These resignations are only a form of intermingling between the two political and economic crises. According to the estimates of the Ministry of Finance issued in mid-September, the Israeli economy will not recover before 2023. Israel Central Bureau of Statistics announced last November that the economy will witness a deflation by 5%, with unemployment reaching 22.6% by the end of October 2020.

The complexity of the Israeli scene increased after the Knesset committee approved the bill to dissolve the Knesset on December 9, after it was approved by a majority in the preliminary reading. The bill was supposed to be presented for the preliminary reading on December 15, but it was postponed until December 21. In the event that the first reading is not initiated, the parliament will be dissolved automatically after two days if the budget is not approved, so that the fourth elections will be held on March 16, 2021.

Gideon Sa’ar mixes Netanyahu's cards

Netanyahu could have won the fourth elections, by redrawing his alliances and arranging the Israeli right-wing house, perhaps by repairing the relationship with Naftali Bennett and working to attract what could be attracted from the Blue & White. This would have happened had Gideon Sa'ar not defected from Likud and announced his resignation from the Knesset on December 8th.

Sa'ar’s move was met with indignation from Netanyahu and his supporters, and an open and implicit welcome from the various components of the opposition, with reference to the continued fragmentation of the Israeli right. Sa'ar’s running in the looming elections under the umbrella of a new party utterly means that most political powers - including the Blue & White - will seek to settle their scores with Likud through Sa'ar’s new party.

Indeed, opinion polls issued by Israeli media outlets have begun to publish preliminary indications of what the Sa'ar party - to which the Likud splinter Knesset member, Yifat Shasha Bitoun, joined - could reap. The last of these polls was published by Channel 12, which indicated that the party would win 21 seats, to come second after Likud, whose presence in the Knesset will be limited to 27 seats. In other words, the new party, along with the Yamena coalition, Yesh Atid-Telem, Blue & White, Yisrael Beiteinu and Meretz, can work on forming a new government with parliamentary comfort. In case Naftali Bennett does not intend to join the new alliance, an understanding with the Joint Arab List will be reached, which aims to deport Netanyahu, to give the new government coalition support in the Knesset.

Until now, there is no guaranteed scenario, except that the right-wing camp led by Netanyahu will head into the unknown if it heads to early elections without organizing its bases. Hence, we understand the desire of this camp to hold elections in the middle of next year, so that the necessary time is available to improve economic performance and provide the vaccine for the target groups at least. However, nothing is guaranteed for this camp, including the extent of its political, ideological and organizational cohesion.

As for the credibility of Benny Gantz and his camp towards the opposition - which considered him neglecting his pledges not to go to a coalition government with Netanyahu after the March 2020 elections - there does not seem to be a total break with the man. This is evidenced by the call of Yair Lapid, who proposed the bill to dissolve the Knesset, for Gantz to do the right thing (i.e. vote in favor of the bill) in order to remove Netanyahu from Balfour Street (the official residence of the Israeli prime minister). Thus, it is not unlikely that the Blue and White alliance will revert to the version of before May 2020.

For Netanyahu, the optimal solution would be to reach an arrangement with his "partners" in the government, to rule out the option of early elections. On the other hand, Gantz will only be satisfied with legislation that guarantees the rotation of power, and this includes - by definition - approving the budget. The settlement option may be better, but it does not guarantee that Netanyahu will not be indicted in the corruption cases against him, which he is supposed to face in court in January 2021.

Conclusion

The great gains achieved by the Netanyahu government during the era of the outgoing US President Donald Trump did not prevent the continuation of the political movement - extending from right to left - against him and his presence in power. In connection with this is that the announcement of normalization relations with a number of Arab countries, the last of which was with Morocco, was not considered an achievement for Netanyahu, but rather for the Israeli state as a whole. Therefore, Propaganda of achievements in foreign policy will not be of use to the opposition political elites and their popular bases that are tired of economic dilemmas.

Winds of change are definitely coming from Washington, with Joseph Biden winning the presidency, and will influence the Israeli political arena. This does not mean, however, that the primacy of the internal Israeli contradiction over the next form of power is not prioritized, due to the depth of this contradiction in terms of time, institutional contradiction, and even popular and societal polarization.

It can be said that the change in the head of the American authority was attentively perceived by some political actors in Israel in order to establish a right-wing government that is closer to the center rather than the far right, so that would not drive the Israeli-American relationship into slightest contradiction, as was the case during the presidency of Barack Obama, thus creating an Israeli-American harmony that somewhat differs from Trump-Netanyahu harmony. This is not to bring about a qualitative reversal in Israeli foreign policy, but rather to re-infuse blood in the negotiating process with Ramallah on the outstanding issues and re-refining Tel Aviv's alliances with the countries of the region in line with the decision-maker in Washington.

Author: STRATEGIECS Team Policy Analysis Team