On January 15, 2020, the Central Elections Committee in Israel has closed its doors to run for the Knesset elections to be held on March 2, 2020; this is the third parliamentary election in less than a year due to the incapability of political parties with the most seats in the Knesset to form a coalition government. Given that neither achieved the number of seats needed to form a majority government, as in April and September 2019 elections, Israel’s political reality has entered a historical stage, manifested in the presence of a caretaker government for nearly a year. 

These elections differ from previous rounds as they come in light of developments in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict at both international and regional levels such as the announced U.S. peace plan, "Deal of the Century" and the declared U.S. killing of Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, who, according to Jerusalem Post, topped “Israel’s potential hit list”. Ranking 3rd on the aforementioned list, the Israeli army has assassinated Baha Abu al-Ata, a leader in the Al-Quds Brigades leader, the armed wing of the Islamic Jihad Movement in Gaza. 

These events, in particular, constitute the electoral propaganda elements for the Likud camp led by Benjamin Netanyahu, considering he leads the caretaker government that was in direct contact with these events. As for the other party, Blue and White that is led by Benny Gantz and is Netanyahu's primary adversary, the only option remaining is to work on announcing the party's stance on current events before the public. For instance, Gantz supports and promises to annex 30% of the West Bank which includes the Jordan Valley if he forms a government, in addition to his support for the killing of Qasem Soleimani. Nonetheless, it is expected that the position of Blue and White will weaken for it supports the political gains which Netanyahu is achieving in the first place. On February 20, 2020, the Israeli institute Direct Polls predicted that the Likud party would win against Blue and White by 33 to 31 seats.

However, this survey's results do not necessarily mean that the issue of achieving the majority required to form a government has been resolved; the Arab List, which secured 13 seats in September 2019 and comes third in the Knesset, does not ally with any right party, which reciprocates this reluctance as well. On the other hand, Blue and White, a centrist party, deems allying with the Arab List as harmful to its interests; in other words, there is a notion to avoid negotiating with the Arab List when it comes to forming a government, denoting Israel's attitude towards Arab presence in the Knesset.

Led by Avigdor Lieberman, Yisrael Beiteinu, is expected to secure 7 seats as per the aforementioned survey, will not ally with Blue and White, which comprises several left and center parties and coalitions, reaching 45 seats at best. Similarly, Lieberman will not partner with the Likud given their dispute over conscription for religious Jews, an issue that sparked the political crisis in late 2018.

Israel's right-wing populist Likud is expected to secure 57 seats as opposed to 55 in September elections, which is still below the target. Nonetheless, a new party on which Netanyahu relies is the far-right Otzma Yehudit led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, representing, to a large extent, settlement residents. In case this party exceeds the decisive 3.25% rate, an equivalence of 4 seats, Netanyahu will be capable of forming form his “pure right” government, should predictions prove valid.  

It is also possible to relive the scenario of new elections in case political parties fail to establish the 61-seat formula unless one of the prominent parties (Likud or Blue and White) decided to accept forming a national government. Yet, Gantz would refuse to form a government with the presence of Netanyahu, and instead, believes in holding him accountable for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust charges brought by the Public Prosecution. It is worth mentioning that this gamble demands more time, exceeding the 21-day constitutionally required period to form a government. Even if Netanyahu resigns from his post, which requires his condemnation and ending all opportunities for appeal, this does not guarantee Likud's approval to form a unity government with “Blue and White” without overlooking the number of votes Netanyahu secured in the December 2019 primary elections (71.5٪). Furthermore, this might not even sustain the right's current form as Netanyahu does not represent himself, but rather the current political trend within Israel's right. 

In September 2019, STRATEGIECS researchers published an article titled “The Knesset Elections: Reshaping Israel's Status Quo”, discussing in more detail Israel's political powers, along with their points of disputes and agreements. 

Author: STRATEGIECS Team Policy Analysis Team