The election results heralding a win for the left in both the UK and France also announced a transition in the political landscape for both countries. In light of different local circumstances in both cases. The Labour Party won 412 seats out of 650 in the House of Commons in the July 5 election, with its leader, Keir Starmer, appointed prime minister to succeed Rishi Sunak, the former leader of the Conservative Party.

In France, the New Popular Front won first place in the second round of elections held July 8. After it won 182 seats out of 577 of the National Assembly surpassing the President Emmanuel Macron camp that came in the second place with 168 seats. These results would reflect the outcome of future elections in various European countries and influence overall European politics regarding current issues, especially  the Russian-Ukrainian war and the war in Gaza.

Turning Toward the Left

The large transition in the British and French elections raises questions about the reasons why the voters preferred the left at a time when the center of gravity in European politics is moving toward the right and far right.

For instance, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has led a right-majority government in Italy since October 2022. In May this year, a far-right government took control of the Netherlands. And in June, the far right won a number of elections for the European Parliament (France, Italy, Austria, Hungry, Spain) and won second or third place in countries such as Germany and the Netherlands.

However, the political transition in the UK and France indicate that there were internal indicators that prompted voters to prefer political change.

1- Economic and Social Issues Played a Major Role in Moving Voters Toward the Left

Among the top economic issues influencing European voters were the high cost of food, medicine, and electricity. For instance, in March 2022, electricity prices in the UK jumped 54%. In France and much of Europe, supermarket prices have hit record levels in recent months even though the costs of many raw materials used by food producers have been declining.

At the same time, the ruling conservative governments in both countries are trying to change the social norms. The French government has often been accused of pushing policies to change the social and economic norms, such as raising retirement age, that has led to multiple waves of protest.

This indicates that the most decisive voting body in both countries tended to vote in protest of  governmental policies and for a change in the social status and economic approach.

2- A Win for the Left Doesn’t Mean the Decline of the Right

In truth, it is expected that the conservative party will achieve even worse results than it has.

In France, Macron’s camp came in second place and the far right in third. This indicates that the stumbling of the left in any of the two experiences may lead the voters to prefer the right, as happened in the Italian and Dutch elections.

In Great Britain, the new prime minister, in the first meeting of the new British government, pointed out the size of the challenge of fixing many internal problems and winning the support of the public tired from years of austerity, political chaos, and a debilitating economy.

3- Far-Right Wins in EU Elections Do Not Predict or Reflect Local Parliamentary Elections

While the far right advanced in the first round of voting in the French election, its share declined in the second round and the left won the majority. European policy priorities differ from the priorities of European national communities. This is especially true since, as mentioned earlier, economic and social politics are within the specialty of the national bodies.

4- The Far Right Focused Its Winning Campaigns on International Affairs

Issues of national sovereignty, immigration, and the Russian-Ukrainian war dominated the right’s electoral speeches, whereas the left’s agenda focused on social and economic issues, such as jobs, education, and health care. Both take the same stances in foreign policy.

The Limits of Change in the European and International Landscape

The left win in a major European country such as the UK and France does not necessarily indicate that the rest of the European countries will witness a leftist tide, indicating that the electoral situation in each country is different from the other. However, Europe is increasingly polarizing between left and right. The election results reflection on the joint European institutions will remain weak compared with previous fears of the far right taking the lead in the election especially in France.

The left is considered to have a traditional foreign policy toward the European and international alliances, unlike the conservative right that led the UK out of the European Union in 2016.

However, Europe must adapt to passing its joint and national policies in a context filled with tensions. The actual impact remains to be judged based on the outcomes of the American elections, especially if Donald Trump is re-elected president. This would necessitate Europe to once again seek its strategic independence and self-reliance in defense, economy, and politics. Such polarization would redefine the continent’s identity anew, especially with far-right movements remaining a significant force governing major countries and holding the majority voting power in the European Parliament.

Overall, the data does not indicate any significant changes in either the UK or France’s policies regarding international issues, specifically the wars in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip. The most pressing international issues for the British government will be dealing with changes in the international system and trade relations with China. However, the British discourse may change and exert more pressure regarding the war in the Gaza Strip, which could affect the British government’s stance on the investigations conducted by the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice, and possibly revive calls for a ceasefire, but without fundamental changes in the course of the war or the UK’s stance towards Israel.

The picture appears more ambiguous in France, where changes in foreign policy and the war in the Gaza Strip are influenced by the forming of the upcoming government. The pressure on Macron regarding his stance on the war, the two-state solution, and the recognition of the Palestinian state is likely to increase if the far-left La France Insoumise Party is directly involved in the governing coalition. These changes would be less pronounced if a technocratic candidate becomes prime minister, as such a government would have little influence on the country’s foreign policies.

In fact, domestic issues and policies will dominate the priorities of the government in Britain, with tangible changes felt at the local level. This is especially true for leftist movements, which will need to re-establish their presence on the domestic scene after facing serious risks of being sidelined.

Author: STRATEGIECS Team Policy Analysis Team