Regional Trends
Regional Trends
Iraq Between Geopolitical Challenges and Strategic Opportunities
Regional Trends
The Syrian-Iraqi Border: Reshaping the Geopolitical Space of the Middle East
Regional Trends
The Arab Stance Amid Regional Variables
Regional Trends
How the B-2 Stealth Bomber Changed the Course of U.S.–Iran Negotiations
Regional Trends
Israel and Southern Syria: Limits of Power and Parameters of Settlement in Suwayda
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Will the Presidency of Masoud Pezeshkian Change Iran’s Domestic and Foreign Policies?
The Iranian president’s ability to implement new programs is limited considering the failed efforts of the three previous reformist presidents. None of them managed to bring about significant changes in Iran’s domestic and foreign policies. Moreover, it is likely that Pezeshkian agenda will face strong opposition from the conservatives who dominate the parliament and the Assembly of Experts after their victory in the March 2024 elections.
Ultimate Test of Deterrence: The Israeli Assassinations of Two Axis of Resistance Leaders
The assassination of Fouad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh put the region in extraordinary circumstances, with the Axis of Resistance acknowledging the significance of the two murders and its members threat to retaliate. Consequently, the region should expect four impending retaliatory attacks from Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
Turkey and Syria Inching Closer Toward Resuming Good Relations
Turkish-Syrian relations have entered a fresh phase of discussion initiatives, but the path of rapprochement between them is not new. Its manifestations have been apparent since 2022. But now the resumption of relations between the two counties has become a significant objective for Russia.
Houthi Escalation Amid Growing Iranian Interest in the Mediterranean
Iran is attempting to encourage its allies to increase their activity in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, Iranian perceptions of their ability to operate and exert influence in the region face several constraints and complexities. These include geographical factors, military capabilities, and the inability to control escalation and its repercussions.
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Escalation Development Paths Between Hezbollah and Israel
The escalation between Hezbollah and Israel raises a question about the future of confrontation between the two parties according to paths determined by the data of the two parties and circumstances surrounding the war in general, and among options for further escalation, containment, or diplomatic settlement.
Will Biden’s Plan Succeed in Achieving Stability in the Middle East?
U.S. President Joe Biden’s plan for stability in the Middle East sets a clear initial goal —a ceasefire—and an explicit ultimate aim: sustainable cessation of the war in Gaza. However, the path of the plan from its implementation to its completion faces several complications and contains gaps that could disrupt it.
Truly Accidental or Targeted Operation.. How Ebrahim Raisi’s Death Intensifies the Dynamic Dispute Over Power in Iran?
Raisi’s death is a chance for the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to redefine the Irani regime and reduce the internal disputes and frictions.
Why Has the Iran-Israel Conflict Moved to Direct Confrontation?
In the context of the Gaza conflict, Israel, guided by the “Octopus Doctrine” formulated in 2018, has dealt with the perils and challenges posed by the “Unity of Arenas”. The Israeli doctrine serves to intensify the pressures exerted on Iran, instead of engaging with a broad range of armed factions. The underlying premise of Israel’s strategy, as dictated by this Doctrine, is to compel Iran to put pressure on its proxies to cease their escalation against Israel. Concurrently, this Doctrine aims to diminish the strategic value these factions perceived by the Iranian mentality, given their role as the forward defense line of Iran’s territories.
How Will Washington Respond to the January 28 Attacks?
This situation assessment addresses the attack by Iranian-backed armed groups on “Tower 22,” a secret strategic U.S. military base. This unprecedented event led to the death of three American soldiers and had several implications for the region witnessing an escalation that could expand according to the nature of America’s response to the attack.