Analyses
Regional Trends
After the Assassination of Khamenei: Scenarios for the Third Supreme Leader
International and Global Trends
Washington and Tehran: Negotiations Under the Hammer of Military Buildup
Regional Trends
Iraq Between Geopolitical Challenges and Strategic Opportunities
Regional Trends
The Syrian-Iraqi Border: Reshaping the Geopolitical Space of the Middle East
International and Global Trends
Real clear world: A former terrorist inside the white house
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Escalation Development Paths Between Hezbollah and Israel
The escalation between Hezbollah and Israel raises a question about the future of confrontation between the two parties according to paths determined by the data of the two parties and circumstances surrounding the war in general, and among options for further escalation, containment, or diplomatic settlement.
Perceptions of Iran’s Political Scene in Upcoming Presidential Election
The upcoming presidential election in Iran is of particular importance given the internal and external issues surrounding Iranian politics. Foremost among them is the question of who will succeed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, how will his vision—and the next president’s—shape Iran’s political system 80 years after the 1978–1979 revolution, and how will regional and international developments and their implications affect Iran’s security and diplomatic policies.
Will the “Response” conference in Jordan overcome the complexity of aid flow and reconstruction?
This position paper addresses the Emergency Humanitarian Response Conference in Gaza, which was held in Jordan. The conference discussed several key areas related to determining the mechanisms of this response and the main aspects of its coordination among the components of the international community.
Will Benny Gantz’s Resignation From Israel’s War Cabinet Lead to an Early Election?
The resignation comes after the relationships in the three-member war cabinet reach a critical phase over disputes about the war and the Israeli “Day After” vision for Gaza after the war.
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Will Biden’s Plan Succeed in Achieving Stability in the Middle East?
U.S. President Joe Biden’s plan for stability in the Middle East sets a clear initial goal —a ceasefire—and an explicit ultimate aim: sustainable cessation of the war in Gaza. However, the path of the plan from its implementation to its completion faces several complications and contains gaps that could disrupt it.
Have the Costs of the War in Gaza Become a Factor in Stopping It?
Aside from considering the achievements perceived by the parties involved in the Israel-Hamas war, the losses and risks associated with its continuation have become a factor in increasing the chances of reaching a ceasefire agreement. Therefore, a range of future scenarios should be taken into account.
Israeli War Cabinet Scenarios Following Gantz’s Resignation Warning
Disputes within Israel’s war cabinet raise several questions about the impact political parties will have on the future of the cabinet, its unity, existence, and, more broadly, on the future of the Israeli government. The war cabinet and the government of Israel have become significantly tied to the war variables in Gaza and the positions of the actors involved, foremost of which is the United States. This ushers in three scenarios for the future of the war cabinet: it will carry on its work, it will dissolve while the coalition government remains, or it will dissolve leading to early elections.
Truly Accidental or Targeted Operation.. How Ebrahim Raisi’s Death Intensifies the Dynamic Dispute Over Power in Iran?
Raisi’s death is a chance for the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to redefine the Irani regime and reduce the internal disputes and frictions.
How Will the American University Protests Impact the Course of the Israeli War in Gaza?
With the widespread student protests across American and western universities demanding a ceasefire in Gaza, is a new relationship forming between the upcoming Alpha Generation and Israel? And will it have a snowball effect that spreads to Arab and Palestinian universities?