Regional Trends
Regional Trends
The Syrian-Iraqi Border: Reshaping the Geopolitical Space of the Middle East
Regional Trends
The Arab Stance Amid Regional Variables
Regional Trends
How the B-2 Stealth Bomber Changed the Course of U.S.–Iran Negotiations
Regional Trends
Israel and Southern Syria: Limits of Power and Parameters of Settlement in Suwayda
Regional Trends
Using the Heimlich Maneuver to Shift the Regional Security Landscape
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Will Biden’s Plan Succeed in Achieving Stability in the Middle East?
U.S. President Joe Biden’s plan for stability in the Middle East sets a clear initial goal —a ceasefire—and an explicit ultimate aim: sustainable cessation of the war in Gaza. However, the path of the plan from its implementation to its completion faces several complications and contains gaps that could disrupt it.
Why Has the Iran-Israel Conflict Moved to Direct Confrontation?
In the context of the Gaza conflict, Israel, guided by the “Octopus Doctrine” formulated in 2018, has dealt with the perils and challenges posed by the “Unity of Arenas”. The Israeli doctrine serves to intensify the pressures exerted on Iran, instead of engaging with a broad range of armed factions. The underlying premise of Israel’s strategy, as dictated by this Doctrine, is to compel Iran to put pressure on its proxies to cease their escalation against Israel. Concurrently, this Doctrine aims to diminish the strategic value these factions perceived by the Iranian mentality, given their role as the forward defense line of Iran’s territories.
How Will Washington Respond to the January 28 Attacks?
This situation assessment addresses the attack by Iranian-backed armed groups on “Tower 22,” a secret strategic U.S. military base. This unprecedented event led to the death of three American soldiers and had several implications for the region witnessing an escalation that could expand according to the nature of America’s response to the attack.
The United States: The De-Escalation Efforts and the Prospects of Escalation in the Middle East
Policy Analysis: This paper discusses the United States policy and pillars towards the war in the Gaza Strip, and the U.S. position on the secondary arenas of escalation. It also presents a new idea about the signs of independence of those arenas in terms of their goals and objectives from the main arena of war in the Gaza Strip, the matter that poses new challenges for the United States in pursuing unified policies.
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How the War on Gaza Changed the Dynamics of Arab Politics Towards the Region?
This analysis discusses the transformations imposed by the war on Gaza that may affect Arab policies towards the region in terms of alliances, and the impacts of such alliances on the path to reconciliation and peace, as well as the impacts on views, priorities, and regional perceptions that alter the region’s future.
The Unification of the arenas: Strategy Tracks in the War Between Hamas and Israel
The position of Iran and its allies has been in flux. At times, they issue rhetorical threats through the media; at other times, they exercise tactical restraint. However, Iran and all elements within the so-called “Axis of Resistance” coalition are directly involved in the ongoing conflict in Gaza. This paper aims to explore the Axis’s stance on the ongoing war and the potential ways in which the coalition might engage in it.
American Military Movements on the Borders of Iraq and Syria: A Preventive Buildup or a Complex Military Operation?
An assessment of the situation: Addressing the United States’ reinforcement of its military presence in the Middle East by sending more military equipment and soldiers, as well as the military movements of American battalions in Iraq and Syria. These movements raise questions about the “Biden Doctrine,” especially with the possibility that a military operation in the near future might be launched pursuant to a U.S. plan.
Could Hezbollah’s Tents Lead to a Military Escalation with Israel?
This position paper addresses the issue of Hezbollah’s tents in Shebaa Farms, and the questions raised about the concept of Mutual Deterrence between Hezbollah and Israel. The paper also discusses Hezbollah’s pursuit of a set of goals that intersect with Iranian political and security considerations, as well as with Lebanese domestic circumstances.
Can Regional Dynamics Bring a Breakthrough to the Yemeni Crisis?
Position Assessment: This paper explores the international and regional attention towards the Sultanate of Oman’s role in resolving the Yemeni crisis and leading the notable progress it has made. This raises important questions Can Oman’s mediation efforts lead to a stable settlement of the Yemeni crisis? Alternatively, could any agreements reached be temporary compromises that are susceptible to collapse during the first test or tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran?