Situation Assessment
Arab policy
The Syrian Unity Predicament: Files of Sovereignty, Security, and the Kurdish Issue
International and Global Trends
Russia and the Restoration of Strategic Presence in the Changing Syrian Landscape
The Palestinian–Israeli Conflict
The Outcomes of the Doha Emergency Summit and the Missed Arab Opportunity
The Palestinian–Israeli Conflict
The American-Israeli Proposal and the Shift Towards a Unilateral Path in the Gaza Strip
Countering Terrorism and Extremism
Will ISIS Succeed in Hijacking Syria from the Transitional Government?
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Another Round of Escalation to Change the Equation of the “Unification of the arenas”
This paper discusses the recent escalation between the Al-Jihad al-Islami and Israel, which ended with the announcement of a ceasefire between the two parties on May 13. The paper also examines the ““Unification of the arenas”, strategy launched by the Al-Jihad al-Islami in mid-May 2021, as well as Israel’s efforts to dismantle this strategy by adopting a “disintegration of arenas” strategy.
Quid pro quo: Chances of Success for the Amman Consultative Meeting
Position Assessment | On May 1, 2023, the foreign ministers of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, and Syria convened in Amman for an Arab Consultative Meeting to establish a roadmap for Syria’s reintegration into the Arab world. This position assessment offers an analysis of the Amman Consultative Meeting, evaluating its chances of success in achieving this goal.
Can Regional Dynamics Bring a Breakthrough to the Yemeni Crisis?
Position Assessment: This paper explores the international and regional attention towards the Sultanate of Oman’s role in resolving the Yemeni crisis and leading the notable progress it has made. This raises important questions Can Oman’s mediation efforts lead to a stable settlement of the Yemeni crisis? Alternatively, could any agreements reached be temporary compromises that are susceptible to collapse during the first test or tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran?
The Military Confrontations in Sudan are Complicating the Crisis and Exacerbating Its Repercussions
Position Assessment | This assessment examines the turmoil and armed confrontations that erupted in Sudan between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), as such events come due to a disagreement over security and military reform, specifically regarding the issue of integrating the RSF into the armed forces.
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Alliances and Scenarios: Interpreting the Turkish 2023 Elections
Position Assessment | This assessment discusses the upcoming general elections in Turkey, which are scheduled to take place in mid-May, amidst domestic challenges that have created a complex electoral scene and increased polarization between political forces. The assessment identifies several scenarios regarding the potential outcomes of the upcoming electoral process.
Aqaba and Sharm el-Sheikh Summits: Seeking Limited Achievements with Future Impact
Position Assessment | This assessment examines the Aqaba and Sharm el-Sheikh summits in the context of their timing, field data, and proposed objectives. The parties to these summits hope to achieve limited breakthroughs in Palestinian-Israeli relations that can have positive short- and medium-term impact on the political, economic, and security situations in the West Bank.
Chances of Consensus on Sainte-Laguë Electoral System in Iraq
Position Assessment |This Position Assessment examines the controversy surrounding the proposal to adopt the Sainte-Laguë mechanism for the Iraqi Electoral Law. The mechanism was previously used in the 2014 and 2018 elections, but was later stopped by the law implemented in 2020. The assessment assumes that the current political climate in Iraq presents an opportunity for the State Administration Coalition to introduce a new electoral law.
The Regional Situation Following the Restoration of Saudi-Iranian Relations
Policy Analysis | This analysis addresses the announcement of the restoration of Saudi-Iranian relations, sponsored by China, with an emphasis on the underlying motivations of both nations. Additionally, the analysis evaluates the impact of this announcement on the regional situation and its influence on a range of issues in the region.
The Jordanian Initiative: Opportunities to Establish Security in Southern Syria
Policy Analysis | This analysis examines Jordan’s efforts to mobilize international support and an Arab consensus to reach a political solution to the Syrian crisis. The aim is to reduce security threats along Jordan’s northern and eastern borders and strengthen the active Arab role in the Syrian crisis in the face of Iranian influence in the country.