Analyses
International and Global Trends
Washington and Tehran: Negotiations Under the Hammer of Military Buildup
Regional Trends
Iraq Between Geopolitical Challenges and Strategic Opportunities
Regional Trends
The Syrian-Iraqi Border: Reshaping the Geopolitical Space of the Middle East
International and Global Trends
Real clear world: A former terrorist inside the white house
International and Global Trends
NYT: The President and A Former Terrorist Meet at the White House
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What If Iran Had the Nuclear Bomb?
Policy Analysis | This paper deals with the scenario of Iran becoming a nuclear state. Many estimates indicate that Tehran is close to crossing the nuclear threshold for military purposes. This analysis investigates two views, one sees Iran’s possession of a nuclear weapon as a condition that can be tolerated, while the other sees that Iran constitutes a model of an expansionist state that is hard to be lenient towards regarding the possibility of its possession of a nuclear weapon.
Another Round of Escalation to Change the Equation of the “Unification of the arenas”
This paper discusses the recent escalation between the Al-Jihad al-Islami and Israel, which ended with the announcement of a ceasefire between the two parties on May 13. The paper also examines the ““Unification of the arenas”, strategy launched by the Al-Jihad al-Islami in mid-May 2021, as well as Israel’s efforts to dismantle this strategy by adopting a “disintegration of arenas” strategy.
Quid pro quo: Chances of Success for the Amman Consultative Meeting
Position Assessment | On May 1, 2023, the foreign ministers of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, and Syria convened in Amman for an Arab Consultative Meeting to establish a roadmap for Syria’s reintegration into the Arab world. This position assessment offers an analysis of the Amman Consultative Meeting, evaluating its chances of success in achieving this goal.
Can Regional Dynamics Bring a Breakthrough to the Yemeni Crisis?
Position Assessment: This paper explores the international and regional attention towards the Sultanate of Oman’s role in resolving the Yemeni crisis and leading the notable progress it has made. This raises important questions Can Oman’s mediation efforts lead to a stable settlement of the Yemeni crisis? Alternatively, could any agreements reached be temporary compromises that are susceptible to collapse during the first test or tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran?
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The Military Confrontations in Sudan are Complicating the Crisis and Exacerbating Its Repercussions
Position Assessment | This assessment examines the turmoil and armed confrontations that erupted in Sudan between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), as such events come due to a disagreement over security and military reform, specifically regarding the issue of integrating the RSF into the armed forces.
Alliances and Scenarios: Interpreting the Turkish 2023 Elections
Position Assessment | This assessment discusses the upcoming general elections in Turkey, which are scheduled to take place in mid-May, amidst domestic challenges that have created a complex electoral scene and increased polarization between political forces. The assessment identifies several scenarios regarding the potential outcomes of the upcoming electoral process.
Emirates and Syria: A Relationship that May Redraw the Future of the Region
Syria represents the region’s past strengths and the UAE its present influence; by working together they can secure the region’s future.
Aqaba and Sharm el-Sheikh Summits: Seeking Limited Achievements with Future Impact
Position Assessment | This assessment examines the Aqaba and Sharm el-Sheikh summits in the context of their timing, field data, and proposed objectives. The parties to these summits hope to achieve limited breakthroughs in Palestinian-Israeli relations that can have positive short- and medium-term impact on the political, economic, and security situations in the West Bank.
Chances of Consensus on Sainte-Laguë Electoral System in Iraq
Position Assessment |This Position Assessment examines the controversy surrounding the proposal to adopt the Sainte-Laguë mechanism for the Iraqi Electoral Law. The mechanism was previously used in the 2014 and 2018 elections, but was later stopped by the law implemented in 2020. The assessment assumes that the current political climate in Iraq presents an opportunity for the State Administration Coalition to introduce a new electoral law.