Analyses
Regional Trends
The Syrian-Iraqi Border: Reshaping the Geopolitical Space of the Middle East
Op-Ed
Real clear world: A former terrorist inside the white house
Op-Ed
NYT: The President and A Former Terrorist Meet at the White House
Syria: the Future of the State of Uncertainty
The Syrian Unity Predicament: Files of Sovereignty, Security, and the Kurdish Issue
The Palestinian–Israeli Conflict
Trump’s Plan: Second Phase Scenarios
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What If Iran Had the Nuclear Bomb?
Policy Analysis | This paper deals with the scenario of Iran becoming a nuclear state. Many estimates indicate that Tehran is close to crossing the nuclear threshold for military purposes. This analysis investigates two views, one sees Iran’s possession of a nuclear weapon as a condition that can be tolerated, while the other sees that Iran constitutes a model of an expansionist state that is hard to be lenient towards regarding the possibility of its possession of a nuclear weapon.
Strategic Motives for Iran's Role in the Ukrainian Crisis
Policy Analysis |This analysis addresses the Iranian role in the Ukrainian crisis, via providing advice to Russia and drones, the matter which raises many questions and inquiries about the nature of the strategic motives behind this Iranian role.
Insights into the Motivation and Causes Fueling Iran’s Continued Protests
Policy Analysis | This paper examines the economic, social, and geopolitical dimensions of the ongoing Iranian protests since the death of young Mahsa Amini that are likely to play a major role in the spread and continuation of the protests.
How the Supreme Leader’s Illness Affect the Iranian Regime during the Protests?
Policy Analysis | This analysis tackles the challenges that are facing the Iranian regime, in light of reports which said that Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has a "serious" disease, at the time the protests in several Iranian cities intensify as days pass. The paper examines the role of the Supreme Leader, and how his death may affect in light of the country's unfavourable major events.
Iranian Protests over the Killing of "Mahsa Amini" and the Limits of Influence
Position Paper | This paper addresses popular protests in Iranian cities, raising many important questions, such as: What are the limits of the impact of these protests on the Iranian regime? Will such protests this time be different from the previous protests the country witnessed? What are the limits of external support for the protests, and how does that support affect the protests tracks?
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THE REGIONAL SYSTEM AFTER THE EXPECTED NUCLEAR AGREEMENT, IS IT A STEP "FORWARD" OR "BACKWARD"?
This paper presents a hypothetical analysis of the potential intrinsic changes in the Middle East as a consequence of success in Vienna's negotiations and the repercussions they impose on the form of interactions, alliances and balance of powers in the region driven by the key question: Would the nuclear agreement allow prevailing a phase of stability and calm in the region, or would it lead to a new more serious phase of turmoil, tension and instability or possibly an armed confrontation?
Iran's Attitude of Ukraine's Crisis between "Tactical"and "Strategic"
This paper presents a reading in Iran's "ambiguous" attitude of Russia's military operations in Ukraine and the nature of this attitude by standing aside from all parties and to identify dimensions of the situation in order to answer the main question: Does Iran's Foreign Policy witnesses a transformation from East to West?
Iran, Recruiting political Shiism, The Problematic Concept, Danger and containment strategies
This paper provides an in-depth reading of the problematic concept "political Shiism", and how Iran employed it after the "Islamic Revolution" in 1979 to implement the "Al-Wali Al-faqih" model throughout the region, in addition to its leader Khomeini's "revolutionary" strategies aiming at dividing societies on sectarian grounds, with purely political demands and goals.
Nuclear Deal's 'Winding Path' Scenarios
There are several indications that the Vienna talks, on the nuclear Agreement, were successful, and that its signing is imminent. Yet, a number of core issues remain disputed between Washington and Tehran, which are capable of undermining the understandings reached between the parties, whether before and after the signing of the Agreement.