Analyses
Syria: the Future of the State of Uncertainty
The Syrian-Iraqi Border: Reshaping the Geopolitical Space of the Middle East
Op-Ed
Real clear world: A former terrorist inside the white house
Op-Ed
NYT: The President and A Former Terrorist Meet at the White House
Syria: the Future of the State of Uncertainty
The Syrian Unity Predicament: Files of Sovereignty, Security, and the Kurdish Issue
Palestinian-Israeli conflict
Trump’s Plan: Second Phase Scenarios
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The Arab Stance Amid Regional Variables
The war in the Gaza Strip and its repercussions on Lebanon and Syria, culminating in its spillover into the Iranian heartland in June 2025, marked a turning point in the balance of power that has prevailed since 2003. This shift resulted in the decline of the Iranian influence and the emergence of Israel as a central actor, and it rearranged the Arab alliances that began to fill the vacuum left by Tehran’s retreat. Worried about Israel turning into a dominant power, Arab states seek to re-engineer the regional balance to formulate a system based on cooperation rather than influence.
How the B-2 Stealth Bomber Changed the Course of U.S.–Iran Negotiations
The U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, carried out as part of “Operation Midnight Hammer,” marked a fundamental turning point in the trajectory of negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The United States shifted from a strategy of economic pressure and multilateral diplomacy to the direct use of military force, in unprecedented alignment with Israel’s approach. Today, Iran stands at a critical crossroads: either accept American-Israeli demands, or risk resuming its nuclear program and facing another wave of military escalation.
Possible Post-War Transformations in Iran’s Domestic Landscape
The outcomes of the recent war indicate a decline in the image of the Iranian regime due to strategic setbacks and the risks posed by internal unrest. This may lead to a transformation in the structure of the regime, opening the door to potential shifts and various scenarios. These could include political paralysis resulting from an impasse between reformists and hardliners or a temporary agreement to manage the crisis. More dramatic possibilities also exist, such as the escalation of separatist unrest in minority regions, posing unprecedented challenges that may be difficult to overcome without fundamental solutions.
Scenarios of the Confrontation between Israel and Iran after the Ceasefire
The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, following the unprecedented confrontation, raises questions about the fate of the agreement and the scenarios for its Sustainability, especially given that both sides have adopted conflicting narratives regarding the objectives of the confrontation and the extent to which they were achieved. Although direct military operations have ceased, the agreement lacks the foundations necessary for its stabilization and continuity. It does not end the core hostility between the two sides but rather leads to three pivotal scenarios, the future balance of which will be shaped by several factors.
Scenarios for the Next Step Following U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities
The regional balance of power shifted with the direct entry of the United States into the military confrontation with Iran when it launched a precision airstrike on June 22, 2025 that targeted key nuclear installations. It pushes Iran to a critical crossroads: either contain the escalation or move toward a full-scale confrontation amid rising regional tensions and growing fears of a multi-front war.
Pakistan’s Approach to the Israeli Military Operation Against Iran
The Pakistani stance toward the Israeli attacks on Iranian capabilities reveals a delicate balance between its political and diplomatic support for Iran and its hesitation to engage in direct military involvement. This caution stems from internal security complexities and regional geopolitical sensitivities. While Pakistan’s rhetoric reflects a rare escalation in relations between the two countries, it remains limited due to concerns over the potential rise in sectarian violence and the challenges posed by militant groups within Pakistan. As a result, Islamabad’s position remains cautious and balanced amid the repercussions of the war in Gaza and its strategic overlap with the Eastern axis.
Washington and Tehran: A First Round of Semi-Direct Negotiations
By entering negotiations with the United States, Iran seeks to preserve its territorial integrity, maintain its political system, and avoid a potential U.S.-Israeli military strike on its nuclear facilities. However, it may also be trying to buy time in pursuit of long-term negotiations that could lead to both internal and external recovery, while also diffusing the momentum of military build-up and hostile intentions against it.
Will the Presidency of Masoud Pezeshkian Change Iran’s Domestic and Foreign Policies?
The Iranian president’s ability to implement new programs is limited considering the failed efforts of the three previous reformist presidents. None of them managed to bring about significant changes in Iran’s domestic and foreign policies. Moreover, it is likely that Pezeshkian agenda will face strong opposition from the conservatives who dominate the parliament and the Assembly of Experts after their victory in the March 2024 elections.
Perceptions of Iran’s Political Scene in Upcoming Presidential Election
The upcoming presidential election in Iran is of particular importance given the internal and external issues surrounding Iranian politics. Foremost among them is the question of who will succeed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, how will his vision—and the next president’s—shape Iran’s political system 80 years after the 1978–1979 revolution, and how will regional and international developments and their implications affect Iran’s security and diplomatic policies.