Analyses
Regional Trends
After the Assassination of Khamenei: Scenarios for the Third Supreme Leader
International and Global Trends
Washington and Tehran: Negotiations Under the Hammer of Military Buildup
Regional Trends
Iraq Between Geopolitical Challenges and Strategic Opportunities
Regional Trends
The Syrian-Iraqi Border: Reshaping the Geopolitical Space of the Middle East
International and Global Trends
Real clear world: A former terrorist inside the white house
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Will ISIS Succeed in Hijacking Syria from the Transitional Government?
Since the fall of the previous regime in December 2024, ISIS has been taking advantage of the fragility of the Syrian transitional authority and the overlapping structure of its various factions with a renewed surge in activity. Despite intensified international strikes against it, ISIS has managed to carry out sophisticated attacks reposition itself amid the complex political and security challenges facing the interim government. The situation is further complicated by the emergence of even more extremist groups and the erosion of boundaries between regular forces and armed extremists. Meanwhile, the international community’s support for the new government is tied to its seriousness in combating terrorism and extremism—thus placing a structural challenge on the government’s security institutions and internal alliances.
The Arab Stance Amid Regional Variables
The war in the Gaza Strip and its repercussions on Lebanon and Syria, culminating in its spillover into the Iranian heartland in June 2025, marked a turning point in the balance of power that has prevailed since 2003. This shift resulted in the decline of the Iranian influence and the emergence of Israel as a central actor, and it rearranged the Arab alliances that began to fill the vacuum left by Tehran’s retreat. Worried about Israel turning into a dominant power, Arab states seek to re-engineer the regional balance to formulate a system based on cooperation rather than influence.
How the B-2 Stealth Bomber Changed the Course of U.S.–Iran Negotiations
The U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, carried out as part of “Operation Midnight Hammer,” marked a fundamental turning point in the trajectory of negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The United States shifted from a strategy of economic pressure and multilateral diplomacy to the direct use of military force, in unprecedented alignment with Israel’s approach. Today, Iran stands at a critical crossroads: either accept American-Israeli demands, or risk resuming its nuclear program and facing another wave of military escalation.
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s Role in the Post-War Gaza Equation
The humanitarian landscape in the Gaza Strip is undergoing a significant transformation with the launch of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). Overseen by former U.S. military officers, the GHF provides aid and security to support the Israeli strategy of dismantling Hamas’s rule and reshaping governance in the Strip. Amid the declining role of UN agencies, the GHF has emerged as an invaluable tool for reengineering the population landscape through projects such as the "Humanitarian City" and “Safe Bubbles”.
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Israel and Southern Syria: Limits of Power and Parameters of Settlement in Suwayda
The Suwayda Governorate in southern Syria witnessed a significant security escalation following clashes between Druze factions and Bedouin tribes, which was followed by a military intervention by the Syrian transitional government. This prompted Israel to carry out airstrikes, which it considered a response to the violation of the “demilitarized zone” principle and its commitments toward the Druze community. As a result, Syrian forces withdrew and a ceasefire agreement was signed with the religious authority in Suwayda that also included local security and administrative arrangements. These developments revealed a gap in the transitional government’s understanding of the Israeli position, placing its presence in the south—and its relations with the Druze and Kurds—under challenges that may reshape the balance of power.
Using the Heimlich Maneuver to Shift the Regional Security Landscape
The Middle East is undergoing a drastic transformation following Israel’s success in dismantling the Iranian encirclement through the "Heimlich maneuver"—an operation that shifted the confrontation from Israel’s borders deep into Iranian territory. This move has redrawn the balance of power and opened the door to a new regional reality built on effective deterrence and a range of choices between escalation and settlement.
The Syrian Geopolitical Scene Amid Israeli–Turkish Rivalry
The Syrian arena is witnessing an escalation in the Israeli–Turkish rivalry, driven by their divergent visions for the structure of the new power following the regime change in December 2024. While Türkiye rushed to support the transitional government and solidify its influence, Israel viewed the rise of Turkish-backed Salafist factions as a threat to its national security and to the regional balance of power. This reflects Syria’s transformation into a central arena for shaping the new Middle East order, though the rivalry remains within a “managed” framework.
Possible Post-War Transformations in Iran’s Domestic Landscape
The outcomes of the recent war indicate a decline in the image of the Iranian regime due to strategic setbacks and the risks posed by internal unrest. This may lead to a transformation in the structure of the regime, opening the door to potential shifts and various scenarios. These could include political paralysis resulting from an impasse between reformists and hardliners or a temporary agreement to manage the crisis. More dramatic possibilities also exist, such as the escalation of separatist unrest in minority regions, posing unprecedented challenges that may be difficult to overcome without fundamental solutions.
Scenarios of the Confrontation between Israel and Iran after the Ceasefire
The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, following the unprecedented confrontation, raises questions about the fate of the agreement and the scenarios for its Sustainability, especially given that both sides have adopted conflicting narratives regarding the objectives of the confrontation and the extent to which they were achieved. Although direct military operations have ceased, the agreement lacks the foundations necessary for its stabilization and continuity. It does not end the core hostility between the two sides but rather leads to three pivotal scenarios, the future balance of which will be shaped by several factors.