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Palestinian-Israeli conflict
Trump’s Plan: Second Phase Scenarios
Politics
Will the Shifting Orientations of Iraqi Voters Decide the Upcoming Elections?
Politics
The Syrian Situation Between Centralization and Decentralization Options
Palestinian-Israeli conflict
Will “Trump’s Plan” Succeed in Achieving a Ceasefire and Peace?
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The Syrian-Iraqi Border: Reshaping the Geopolitical Space of the Middle East
The Syrian-Iraqi border is entering a new phase marked by strategic competition and sharp ideological divergence. Its significance now extends far beyond a simple bilateral boundary, turning it into a geopolitical flashpoint that may shape the region’s future landscape. Despite a period of relative calm, the stability along the border remains fragile and temporary, while the likelihood of tension or escalation—driven by domestic developments in both countries or by broader regional and international shifts—remains conspicuously high.
Trump’s Plan: Second Phase Scenarios
With the launch of the second phase negotiations of U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, the two-year war is entering a new stage that may bring about unexpected developments. While attention is focused on the major issues on the negotiating table, it seems that the fine details within the more complex files may prove decisive in shaping a new reality on the ground—and perhaps a political and security reality that does not align either with current expectations or the declared terms of the plan.
Will the Shifting Orientations of Iraqi Voters Decide the Upcoming Elections?
As the parliamentary elections draw near, electoral campaigns must be built upon the tangible progress already achieved and address the aspirations of an Iraqi society that has indeed changed—a society no longer willing to tolerate policies of denial or procrastination.
The Syrian Situation Between Centralization and Decentralization Options
The issue of centralization versus decentralization in Syria is a structural one that goes beyond intellectual debate, touching on the very essence of state reconstruction, the definition of national identity, and the form of governance. While centralization is viewed by some as a safeguard for the country’s unity, experience has shown that it has deepened marginalization and weakened political participation. Conversely, many political segments see decentralization as an entry point for comprehensive institutional reform; however, hastily adopting it could threaten stability and sovereignty, especially given the complexities of the Syrian reality.
Will “Trump’s Plan” Succeed in Achieving a Ceasefire and Peace?
U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to establish a ceasefire in Gaza faces complex challenges, including Hamas’s stance and the plan’s own structural and organizational weaknesses, making its implementation difficult. Although presented as a comprehensive framework to end the war, Hamas’s response and the U.S. welcome of it have effectively dismantled the plan’s unity, turning it into a gradual approach that begins with releasing detainees in exchange for halting military operations, while postponing the remaining provisions to later negotiation phases. The plan also falls short of addressing Gaza’s urgent humanitarian needs, which risks triggering indirect waves of displacement. Given the plan’s complexity and the failure of previous gradual approaches, the future of the war and the fate of the Gaza Strip remain open to multiple scenarios.
My Third Message to Our Arab Shia Brothers: A Call to Reason and Reality
I renew the call to our Arab Shia brethren: Let your belonging rise above all else and let your loyalty be to your Arab nation—away from involvement in any partisan or external orientation. Face the present challenges with a spirit of responsibility and courage despite the successive losses that have drained and weighed heavily upon you. Reassess your path with honesty and distance yourselves from false loyalties that have brought nothing to you and your homeland but blood, destruction, and calamities.
Russia and the Restoration of Strategic Presence in the Changing Syrian Landscape
The regime change that Syria experienced in December 2024 led to a radical—and also chaotic—reordering of the Syrian geopolitical landscape. One of the main questions raised at the time concerned whether Russia would accept the unfolding scenario, abandon its previous allied regime, and face the potential loss of its strategic and vital bases on the Mediterranean coast, which it had long maintained.
The Outcomes of the Doha Emergency Summit and the Missed Arab Opportunity
The most important criterion for judging the outcomes of the Arab-Islamic summit in Doha this September remains the extent to which they are reflected in Israeli behavior. While the summit could serve as a barrier against Israel repeating attacks on Qatar or any other Arab state, it will not alter the developments on the ground, nor will it play a role in reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East—a matter of utmost priority and significance at both the Arab and regional levels.