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Politics
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Regional Trends
After the Assassination of Khamenei: Scenarios for the Third Supreme Leader
International and Global Trends
Israeli-U.S. Military Operation Scenarios and Iranian Responses
International and Global Trends
Washington and Tehran: Negotiations Under the Hammer of Military Buildup
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U.S. Pier in Gaza and the Chances of Successful Delivery of Aid By Sea
A situation assessment on the temporary pier in the Gaza Strip, which the U.S. military is building to enable the Gaza Strip to receive large shipments of aid, and the challenges facing plans to deliver aid by sea.
Post-War: Scenarios for the Palestinian Political Landscape
This position assessment addresses the scenarios of the political landscape in Palestine during the post-war phase in Gaza related to the moves and positions of Israel, the United States, and Hamas. It also addresses the challenges facing their plans.
How Israel Views the International Court of Justice’s Emergency Measures Against It
The International Court of Justice’s interim ruling in the South Africa case accusing Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip carries several ramifications for Tel Aviv, especially on the domestic level. This paper explains how the political and military powers in Israel perceive that decision.
Gaza War: Complex Considerations, Elusive Truce, and No End in Sight
The war in Gaza has reached a critical juncture, intensifying in a way that concerns mediators and neighboring countries, with implications for the broader international community. This escalation is evident in negotiations for a possible new truce, where the demands and priorities of the parties involved, along with the complex considerations of the mediators, are prominently featured. These intricate dynamics have led to multiple parallel tracks for both the war and the truce efforts, which this paper aims to explore.
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Israeli Government Scenarios for the Day After the War
The Israeli government coalition has been in a state of crisis since its formation in December 2022. This ongoing multifaceted crisis stems from the disparate components of the government coalition, as well as its domestic and foreign policies. In addition to this are the new crises produced by the war in Gaza. This paper addresses the Israeli government’s scenarios for the day after the war.
How Saleh al-Arouri’s Assassination Pushed the Gaza War Into a New Phase
The assassination mission signaled that Israel had entered into a new phase of the war in the Gaza Strip by reducing the fire rate and perfecting concentrated military operations and precise intelligence activities. This achieved by both targeting and killing important Hamas and jihad leaders and successfully bombing sensitive military facilities
How do Political Islam Groups See the War in Gaza?
Despite the shared roots of political Islam groups, whether in terms of their origin or ideology, their positions on the attacks carried out by Palestinian factions in the Gaza envelope have varied between support and opposition. Therefore, this paper aims to assess the positions of these groups regarding the war in Gaza.
Possible Outcomes of the Israeli War on the Gaza Strip After the Truce
The Israeli war on the Gaza Strip is managed according to changing rules, depending on the military situation, the local reactions of Hamas and Israel, and foreign pressures. This means that the war will not proceed according to any prepared plans, decisive objectives, or rules. Therefore, this paper addresses the possible outcome of the war after the truce and the variables that define such the war.
Scenarios of the War on Gaza After the Truce
This position assessment addresses a set of likely scenarios for the course of the war on the Gaza Strip after the November truce. These scenarios are related to a set of indicators and data, some of which are associated with Israel and Gaza, while others are regional and international.