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Regional Trends
After the Assassination of Khamenei: Scenarios for the Third Supreme Leader
International and Global Trends
Israeli-U.S. Military Operation Scenarios and Iranian Responses
International and Global Trends
Washington and Tehran: Negotiations Under the Hammer of Military Buildup
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“Operation Iron Wall” and the Permanent Crisis Policies
The Israeli “Iron Wall” operation in the northern West Bank comes in light of several local, regional, and international developments. It followed two days after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip came into effect. The timing of this operation raises several questions, including the possibility of its scope expanding to include various areas of the West Bank, especially after being described by Israeli officials as part of a shift in the concept of security in the West Bank.
Complications of the Gaza Ceasefire Agreement
The ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip between Hamas and Israel consists of three basic stages, which will end the war that has been waged since October 7, 2023, by graduating the ceasefire from temporary to sustainable during the stages of the agreement. This agreement comes in light of a set of major regional and international variables, which prompted the parties to agree to it.
How Gallant’s Dismissal Affects Israel’s War Management
The dismissal of Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant came at a critical moment, coinciding with Election Day in the United States, the presumed end of the war in Gaza, the start of a new conflict in Lebanon, and a security leaks crisis that led to removing key officials from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office.
Beyond Sinwar: Hamas at a Crossroads
The assassination of Yahya Sinwar places Hamas at a crossroads on various organizational, political, and military levels, especially in the context of the ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon. It also raises questions about the movement’s role in the aftermath of the war, which could significantly impact its alliances and relations both domestically and internationally.
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The Military Operation in Jabalia and Post-War plans
Israel seeks to test a plan that involves a new social engineering of Gaza’s society by creating what it calls “humanitarian bubbles” and contracting private security companies to manage them, which posing a threat of structural changes to the geography and demographics of the Gaza Strip.
The Iranian Attack Against Israel: Strike and Counter-Strike
The turning point between Israeli-Iranian relations is linked to the repercussions of the attack. Iran continues expressing its desire to prevent the war from expanding, but the potential Israeli response will be a decisive factor in shaping the upcoming regional landscape.
The Allenby Incident Is Containable but Signals a Continuation of Tension
Repercussions are likely to remain limited on both the security and political levels, as well as on Jordanian-Israeli relations despite its context amid the war in Gaza, the escalation in the West Bank
How Can Israel’s “Summer Camps” Operation in the Northern West Bank Be Interpreted?
The Israeli security and political objectives behind the military operation in the northern West Bank and Jordan Valley are multifaceted and interconnected. These goals are timed to align with confrontations on other fronts, particularly in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. Extending beyond the Palestinian context, the potential dangers of the situation in the West Bank could also impact Jordan.
Hezbollah’s Response to Shukor’s Death: Balanced Deterrence and Preventing Escalation
The intensity of the Hezbollah response was less than what was expected after Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah vowed on August 6 that it will be “strong, influential and effective” and will exceed the scope of the daily border skirmishes.