In the first volume of his presidential memoirs, A Promised Land, former US President Barack Obama, tells the story of his life, taking the reader through the most prominent stations since he started practicing politics; from his 2004 general election campaign for the U.S. Senate to his inauguration as President of the United States.
Obama narrates events in very detail so much as his 701-page book only covers two and a half years of his first term. The book is the first of a planned two-volume, the second of which is to cover the rest of his presidential era.
“Perhaps most troubling of all, our democracy seems to be teetering on the brink of crisis,” Says Barack Obama, documenting his stance on Trump’s presidency. He seems to believe that as soon as Trump leaves the White House, this is sufficient for the United States to be set back on the right path, welcoming the victory of his former vice-president, John Biden, who is awaiting inauguration early in 2021. However, he admits that one election round may not be sufficient to address the divisions that “run deep” and challenges that are “daunting.”
Obama devoted a good deal of space to speak about international relations and portray some of the political figures he dealt with during his presidency. Among these is the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, whom he describes as " smart, canny, tough and a gifted communicator " who could be “charming, or at least solicitous” when it suited him. It is worth mentioning that the relationship between Obama and Netanyahu in the first half of the first presidential term was uncomfortable for both parties on a personal level, the matter which is reflected in his relationship with the influential lobby, AIPAC, which he believed it approves of the political changes in Israel, even when Israel's actions contradicted the American policy.
Obama also lamented that politicians who used to publically criticize Israel policy risked being tagged as “anti-Israel” and possibly “anti-Semitic” and were confronted with a well-funded opponent in the next election.
It is no surprise that Netanyahu was among the leaders who would not celebrate a victory of Obama’s vice-president, Joe Biden, in the US 2020 elections. For a vague image comes in the face of many Middle East leaders, especially those who took best advantage during the outgoing presidency of Donald Trump.
In fact, Netanyahu or any Israeli prime minister fears that Biden presidency would be a repeat of Obama’s era without the endless generosity and political support that Israel used to receive from Trump who it comes down to be described as "Israel's greatest friend." Undoubtedly, he would miss the personal and ideological rapprochement that he enjoyed with Trump over the past four years.
It seems that Netanyahu is clearing the decks for the winds of change that may blow from the new US administration while facing many internal challenges; as he is surrounded by corruption cases and a great deal of popular skepticism about the way his government deals with the Covid-19 pandemic. Most important of all, with the Democratic Party being in power, the Israeli right - to which Netanyahu belongs - might face greater implications, perhaps triggering a left-wing awakening after decades of laying low.
Biden and Netanyahu belong to different ideologies, however. Last year, the president-elect criticized what he believes to be Netanyahu's drifting towards the extreme right. On the flip side, the progressive left places an added strain on Biden; since it has been a large constituency that contributed to his victory, especially after Bernie Sanders called for his supporters - who advocate a firmer and more oppositional American policy towards Israel - to back this Democratic candidate.
However, it may be too early to judge the approach of President-elect, John Biden, and whether he will follow in the footsteps of former President Obama, since he is often cast as a centrist. Even in the worst moments of the relationship between Netanyahu and Obama, an Israeli diplomat described the latter as "the good cop," not to mention that he had declared himself a "Zionist", just as President-elect Biden has done.
What is clear so far is that Biden will not offer the same privileges that Trump granted to Israel, and it is not unlikely to reverse some of Trump’s actions as well. He may reopen the US consulate in East Jerusalem, which coordinates Palestinian-American relations. He may reopen the Palestine Liberation Organization office in Washington, which Trump had closed, ending Palestinian diplomatic representation in Washington. Biden also promises to restore aid to the Palestinian Authority.
Yet, there is a lot that the president-elect cannot undo. He did not indicate his intentions to move the US embassy from Jerusalem back to Tel Aviv, or to rescind the US recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. However, such decisions must go through specific legislative and administrative procedures, and the Democrats are not expected to take steps that would provoke the conservatives who support Israeli policies.
Concerning the settlement file (which Trump’s green light had made way to construction to proceed even at a rapid pace), Obama and Biden, on the other side, share the same stand on the Israeli plans. Biden does not hide his opposing stance towards settlement plans, as he supports the two-state solution and believes that the settlements are an obstacle to achieving such solution. We recall here the stand he made during his visit to Israel when he was vice president, telling the Israeli leaders that building housing units in East Jerusalem would affect the US-Israeli relationship. Thus, holding on to his stand is likely to slow down the construction of settlements.
In this regard, Biden may find himself greatly opposed by Israel’s advocates, and he may face the same fate as Obama as a result of his stand on settlements. Pressures from Israel's allies in Washington have made Obama’s administration in permanent self-defense. In A Promised Land, he recounts the Israeli maneuvers to put pressure on him, writing, “the White House phones started ringing off the hook,” with lawmakers, journalists, and Jewish leaders “wondering why we were picking on Israel.”
One thing is certain, Biden will continue to support and encourage Israeli rapprochement with some countries in the Middle East, and he will also encourage Israel's efforts to rapprochement with Saudi Arabia. Although it appears that King Salman bin Abdulaziz is not yet interested, he could still put pressure on states seeking to sign new peace agreements with Israel to impose guarantees that would bring greater benefit to the Palestinians.
However, Biden will put Netanyahu in an awkward position towards his new Arab relations with regard to the Iranian nuclear file. According to the Israeli narrative, the rapprochement with some Arab countries was a result of the Israeli stand on Iran. While Biden does not hide his intentions on a "satisfactory" return to the nuclear deal with Iran (we use "satisfactory" because we believe that it will be subject to new talks that may affect Israeli and Gulf concerns in several respects), Netanyahu has anticipated these promises and declared that there will be no return to the previous nuclear agreement. "An uncompromising policy must be maintained to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons," Netanyahu once stated.
It has to be said that just as Obama faced internal pressures as a result of his lukewarm dealings with Israel, Biden might face pressures from a different regional political environment, as new anti-Iranian regional alliances are in the making.
On a final note, Netanyahu has managed to endure and achieve a couple of gains under the Trump administration. He celebrated the US embassy relocation to Jerusalem, hailed Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran, and boasted of establishing normal relations with some Arab countries. However, he is now facing a new challenge and a president whom Obama described as “decent, honest, and loyal … happy to share whatever popped into his head.” Thus Netanyahu find himself obliged to present his views not only to the leaders, but also to the American and global public. Israel is therefore preparing to develop a new strategy to potentially deal with the legacy of Obama’s era.
Keep in touch
In-depth analyses delivered weekly.
