Analyses
Syria: the Future of the State of Uncertainty
The Syrian-Iraqi Border: Reshaping the Geopolitical Space of the Middle East
Op-Ed
Real clear world: A former terrorist inside the white house
Op-Ed
NYT: The President and A Former Terrorist Meet at the White House
Syria: the Future of the State of Uncertainty
The Syrian Unity Predicament: Files of Sovereignty, Security, and the Kurdish Issue
Palestinian-Israeli conflict
Trump’s Plan: Second Phase Scenarios
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The Weapons of the Lebanese Hezbollah in the Post-War Reality
Lebanon is witnessing profound transformations resulting from the repercussions of the Gaza conflict, which has inflicted damage on Iran’s axis in the region, including Hezbollah. It seems that there is a shared understanding among the Lebanese, as well as regional and international actors, of the need to seize the moment to dismantle Hezbollah’s remaining weapons. In turn, Hezbollah feels compelled to make significant strategic concessions to preserve its political activities.
Scenarios of the UNIFIL Mission in Lebanon
Questions are increasing regarding the future of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), its effectiveness, and the available options for the international community to ensure its continuity or adjust its mandate. This paper addresses the possible scenarios for the fate of UNIFIL in terms of its role and presence.
The Trajectories of the Israeli Ground Operation in Lebanon
The Israeli ground operation in southern Lebanon is shrouded in ambiguity from both sides. There is a lack of clarity regarding Israel’s objectives, the intended stopping point of its advance, and the next steps in the operation. Additionally, there are uncertainties about the latent capabilities that Hezbollah might employ to increase the costs of this incursion.
Nasrallah’s Assassination Puts Hezbollah and the Unification of the arenas in a Critical Moment
The assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah puts the movement in a critical moment, exacerbating the damage to its military structure. This raises questions about Hezbollah’s position in confrontation with Israel, the Iranian approach toward its most important allies, and the stance of the other parties in the “Unification of the arenas.”
Intelligence Superiority Places the Escalation Between Israel and Hezbollah at a Turning Point
Israeli information and intelligence superiority has contributed to its deadly aim in striking several strategic targets of the Hezbollah Movement, both at its leadership and infrastructure. This paper seeks to analyze the Israeli strategy towards Hezbollah before and after the war in Gaza, which has significantly weakened the Movement’s capabilities and hindered its ability to respond proportionately and escalate in return.
Could Hezbollah’s Tents Lead to a Military Escalation with Israel?
This position paper addresses the issue of Hezbollah’s tents in Shebaa Farms, and the questions raised about the concept of Mutual Deterrence between Hezbollah and Israel. The paper also discusses Hezbollah’s pursuit of a set of goals that intersect with Iranian political and security considerations, as well as with Lebanese domestic circumstances.
Where would the Lebanese-Israeli Maritime Conflict Lead to?
This paper estimates the legal position of the maritime border dispute between Lebanon and Israel, which is related to the right to use the resources in the disputed waters. This paper also considers to the possible scenarios of this conflict, in accordance with domestic and external considerations, within which Lebanon and Israel are taking their moves.
How Deep Is the Lebanese Financial Crisis Now?
The Lebanese economy has been suffering from a set of complex crises that - through interaction - became evident by the end of 2019, at what time a dramatic collapse started, affecting various aspects of public life. What are the most prominent manifestations of these crises?
An Overview of the Lebanese Economic Crisis and its Dimensions
This article addresses key reasons behind the economic crisis in Lebanon, reflected in the widespread popular protests across the country and the resulting political vacuum after the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri and the formation of Hassan Diab’s government.