Analyses
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Politics
Real clear world: A former terrorist inside the white house
Politics
The Syrian Unity Predicament: Files of Sovereignty, Security, and the Kurdish Issue
Palestinian-Israeli conflict
Trump’s Plan: Second Phase Scenarios
Politics
Will the Shifting Orientations of Iraqi Voters Decide the Upcoming Elections?
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The Changing American Position on Israeli Government’s Management of The War in The Gaza Strip
The disagreements between the American administration and the Israeli government regarding the war in the Gaza Strip are a continuation of the apparent contradictions in the visions and policies between the two parties since the formation of the Israeli government at the end of December 2022, which U.S. President Joe Biden described as “the most right-wing in the history of Israel.” It is likely that these disagreements will continue between the two parties regarding their priorities during the coming period, but the deepening of this disagreement into the structure of the bilateral relations is unlikely.
Why Has the Iran-Israel Conflict Moved to Direct Confrontation?
In the context of the Gaza conflict, Israel, guided by the “Octopus Doctrine” formulated in 2018, has dealt with the perils and challenges posed by the “Unity of Arenas”. The Israeli doctrine serves to intensify the pressures exerted on Iran, instead of engaging with a broad range of armed factions. The underlying premise of Israel’s strategy, as dictated by this Doctrine, is to compel Iran to put pressure on its proxies to cease their escalation against Israel. Concurrently, this Doctrine aims to diminish the strategic value these factions perceived by the Iranian mentality, given their role as the forward defense line of Iran’s territories.
How Can the Attacks on Crocus be Interpreted?
This position assessment discusses the attacks that targeted the Crocus City Hall in Russia, along with the controversy surrounding the party responsible for them. The accusations range from Russia blaming the West to the terrorist organization “ISIS” claiming responsibility.
Zero-Sum Game: Belated Awakening of the 60-Year-Old Munich Security Conference
The 2024 Munich Security coincided with high levels of uncertainty about the future of the international system, developments in the Ukrainian war, the challenges associated with the war in the Gaza Strip, and the relationship between the countries of the North and the South.
U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq: A Containment of Escalation or an Open Invitation for an Escalation of Terrorism?
This policy analysis discusses the possibilities that may ensue from the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and the position of the Iraqi government regarding this withdrawal. It also touches on the nature of future relations between Washington and Baghdad against the backdrop of attacks between armed factions in Iraq and U.S. forces.
How Israel Views the International Court of Justice’s Emergency Measures Against It
The International Court of Justice’s interim ruling in the South Africa case accusing Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip carries several ramifications for Tel Aviv, especially on the domestic level. This paper explains how the political and military powers in Israel perceive that decision.
How Will Washington Respond to the January 28 Attacks?
This situation assessment addresses the attack by Iranian-backed armed groups on “Tower 22,” a secret strategic U.S. military base. This unprecedented event led to the death of three American soldiers and had several implications for the region witnessing an escalation that could expand according to the nature of America’s response to the attack.
Map of the Militarization of the Red Sea and the Features of Upcoming Conflicts
This policy analysis addresses the U.S. and Western military presence in the Red Sea in response to Houthi attacks. It also addresses several questions about the implications and motives behind the unprecedented military mobilization in the Red Sea. For instance, is it proportional to the scale of the Houthi threats to international trade?
The United States: The De-Escalation Efforts and the Prospects of Escalation in the Middle East
Policy Analysis: This paper discusses the United States policy and pillars towards the war in the Gaza Strip, and the U.S. position on the secondary arenas of escalation. It also presents a new idea about the signs of independence of those arenas in terms of their goals and objectives from the main arena of war in the Gaza Strip, the matter that poses new challenges for the United States in pursuing unified policies.