Analyses
Syria: the Future of the State of Uncertainty
The Syrian-Iraqi Border: Reshaping the Geopolitical Space of the Middle East
Op-Ed
Real clear world: A former terrorist inside the white house
Op-Ed
NYT: The President and A Former Terrorist Meet at the White House
Syria: the Future of the State of Uncertainty
The Syrian Unity Predicament: Files of Sovereignty, Security, and the Kurdish Issue
Palestinian-Israeli conflict
Trump’s Plan: Second Phase Scenarios
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Iraq Between Geopolitical Challenges and Strategic Opportunities
Recent developments in Iraq indicate that the country stands on the threshold of a profound geopolitical and economic transformation. The recent elections are seen as a pivotal moment for reshaping regional power balances. With its vast oil and gas resources and its strategic location linking the Gulf to Turkey and Europe, Iraq is gradually becoming an arena for geo-economic competition among Iran, Turkey, and the Gulf–U.S. axis, as well as Western powers. While global actors race to invest in ports, corridors, and energy projects, Iraq’s future remains contingent on its ability to harness this competition to build stability and sustainable development.
STRATEGIECS: A 2024 Year-End Message on the Priority of Foresight in a Complex World and a Tightly Interwoven Regional Landscape
The year 2024 has served as a testing ground to assess the accuracy of the methodologies the STRATEGIECS Institute has developed over the past years, as well as an operational platform to utilize the accumulated expertise of its team. This was particularly evident in their ability to devise results and forecast directions related to various events and issues. The results have been highly promising, both in terms of the pace of research output and the accuracy of predictions.
Will the Presidency of Masoud Pezeshkian Change Iran’s Domestic and Foreign Policies?
The Iranian president’s ability to implement new programs is limited considering the failed efforts of the three previous reformist presidents. None of them managed to bring about significant changes in Iran’s domestic and foreign policies. Moreover, it is likely that Pezeshkian agenda will face strong opposition from the conservatives who dominate the parliament and the Assembly of Experts after their victory in the March 2024 elections.
Wadi al-Kabir Attack: The Event Indicators and the Symbolism of Place
This position assessment addresses the terrorist attack on a mosque in the capital city of Muscat in the Wadi al-Kabir region, covering the implications related to the choice of location and its symbolism, the perpetrators’ identities, their motives, and the future repercussions of the attack.
Houthi Escalation Amid Growing Iranian Interest in the Mediterranean
Iran is attempting to encourage its allies to increase their activity in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, Iranian perceptions of their ability to operate and exert influence in the region face several constraints and complexities. These include geographical factors, military capabilities, and the inability to control escalation and its repercussions.
The European Landscape After the Rise of the Left in the UK and France
This paper addresses the result of the elections in France and the United Kingdom and how they will affect future elections in various European countries. It also examines the overall European politics toward the current files.
Escalation Development Paths Between Hezbollah and Israel
The escalation between Hezbollah and Israel raises a question about the future of confrontation between the two parties according to paths determined by the data of the two parties and circumstances surrounding the war in general, and among options for further escalation, containment, or diplomatic settlement.
Perceptions of Iran’s Political Scene in Upcoming Presidential Election
The upcoming presidential election in Iran is of particular importance given the internal and external issues surrounding Iranian politics. Foremost among them is the question of who will succeed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, how will his vision—and the next president’s—shape Iran’s political system 80 years after the 1978–1979 revolution, and how will regional and international developments and their implications affect Iran’s security and diplomatic policies.
Will Biden’s Plan Succeed in Achieving Stability in the Middle East?
U.S. President Joe Biden’s plan for stability in the Middle East sets a clear initial goal —a ceasefire—and an explicit ultimate aim: sustainable cessation of the war in Gaza. However, the path of the plan from its implementation to its completion faces several complications and contains gaps that could disrupt it.