The Russian Constitution has undergone profound changes, particularly in articles on community culture, the preservation of nationalism, social guarantees, privileges that change the balance of powers, restrictions on appointments, and the change of constitutional articles relating to the presidential term. Undoubtedly, the amendments that have prolonged the presidential period are some of the most interesting amendments.

Thus, this article examines the implications of these amendments in their internal and external context. It also attempts to answer the following central question: what would the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, do after the end of his presidency in 2024 in the light of the new constitutional amendments, particularly those affecting sovereign institutions and materials concerning the presidential period.

Brief

• In March 2020, The Russian State Duma's ruling party deputy Valentina Tereshkova proposed the addition of an amendment to "zero the counter", meaning that The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, could run for election after the end of his current presidency, like any other citizen, explaining: "Putin needs to be there in the event of something wrong."

• These changes have led to the redefinition of the presidential term of office in two presidential terms, which were two “consecutive” sessions, and when the amendments came into effect, the "zeroing of the two sessions" would allow the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, to remain in authority until 2036.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin has made no explicit reference to his intention to run after the end of his current presidency in 2024, and he has been increasing speculations as he told the State Duma about constitutional amendments: "I am sure that together we will do much greater things, at least until 2024, and then we will see."

A new global trend for prominent leaders

This is the second time that Russian President Vladimir Putin has bent the constitutional rules for extending his presidential term. The first time was when the former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev extended his term to six years instead of four years, and although Dmitry applied for the amendment, it was Putin who benefited from it, returning to the Kremlin in 2012 for a six-year term, it`s worth mentioning that both men belong to the same ruling elite. In 2018, he was re-elected to his current term, which is scheduled to expire in 2024, and with the amendments coming into effect, The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, who has spent 20 years in power as head of state and prime minister, will be able to stay there until 2036.

This path is not exclusively used by President Putin, but it reveals a new global trend for prominent leaders; as it was used by the Chinese President Xi Jinping, who came into rule in 2012 when the Chinese Communist Party paved the way for President Xi to remain in power indefinitely after China underwent a constitutional review that removed restrictions on "the president's two terms of office", repealing the article requiring the president and vice president to remain in office for only two consecutive terms, each serving five years.

So did The Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who can remain in power until 2028, where he served as prime minister for 11 years, has made profound changes to constitutional rules, and transformed the republic from a parliamentary system of government to a presidential one in 2017, so that he can run for another five-year term, with broad powers in governing.

The need to maintain internal security and stability justified the need for these leaders to remain in power rather than seek new successors, in other words, to postpone the social, economic, and political repercussions that may result from the transfer of power to another leader, as expressed by The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, in his speech to the State Duma in March 2020: " “The president is the guarantor of the constitution and, to say more simply, the guarantor of the security of our state, its internal stability.”

On the other hand, these leaders must run several times to ensure the continuity of their internal programs, and perhaps the national vision of these leaders is one of the most important pillars that they seek to maintain, as well as to ensure the continuity of their foreign programs driven by hegemonic ambitions and elevate the regional and global status without transferring power to another leader who might dare to compromise it. For example, these ambitions were represented in various activities in Russian foreign policy, starting with Russia’s intervention in Georgia and Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, all the way to the interventions in Syria to support the Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad, in addition to the growing Russian diplomatic role in the middle east, thus, such constitutional amendments will grant the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, that these "gains" are completed without any crowding out, as well as for Chinese President Xi Jinping, who presented his vision of China as a global power, with his ambitious project called the “Belt and Road Initiative”. Similarly, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been able to reintroduce Turkey as a country of regional status.

The Significance of the Referendum and Timing

Although the voting procedures for the amendments on July 1, 2020, are not a requirement or a constitutional condition, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that it was important for people to "express their direct position on the proposed amendments," and indeed the results of the vote came like he desired, as Russian voters approved the constitutional amendments, according to the Russian Central Election Commission, the turnout in the referendum was about 68%, and the results showed that about 78% of them answered "yes".

President Putin and his surrounding circles feared these actions and timing, due to good reason, which is the meaning of the referendum as a bottom-up mandate, and a direct expression of the power of the people, while ensuring that the constitutional referendum is not affected by the repercussions of the Coronavirus epidemic, which has affected living standards, especially with the projections of the Central Bank of Russia that the country's GDP could shrink by 4% to 6% In 2020, as a result of Russia's closure policies to combat the Coronavirus epidemic, not to mention the impact of the fall in Brent crude prices after Russia and Saudi Arabia launched a price war on March 6, 2020, the price fell from about $68 per barrel at the beginning of 2020, to about $19.3 per barrel on April 21, before gradually recovering to about $40 by the end of June.

We can also understand the reasons for the Russian government led by Dmitry Medvedev to resign ahead of the announcement of the constitutional amendments, where the latest poll conducted by the Russian Research Center, Levada, in December 2019, showed a decline in the popularity of Medvedev, with some 61% expressing dissatisfaction with his performance as Prime Minister, indicating his responsibility for the deterioration of infrastructure, the general decline in the economy and living standards.

Perhaps the reasoning behind these justifications is some concern for President Putin and his government, namely the recent growth of protest movements in Russia, where protest movements have repeatedly increased in numbers; in September of the same year, France 24 reported that some 40,000 people in Moscow had participated in the movements in protest against the rejection of the nominations of opposition figures, and in August of the same year, tens of thousands of people took part in protests in Moscow to demand an end to trials linked to previous protests, according to the British “Guardian” newspaper.

The restrictions imposed on movement because of the policies adopted to combat the Corona epidemic have given the Russian authorities a step ahead of the opposition:

First, it prevented Russia from witnessing any demonstrations despite criticism of the referendum, with The Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny describing the official results of the vote on constitutional amendments as "false" and a "big lie."

Secondly, it prevented the opposition from presenting its vision of rejecting the amendments and promoting for this rejection, as included in the report of “Golos”, an independent Russian election monitoring group, among other criticisms of the referendum, including the failure to guarantee pluralism through the absence of campaign regulation and rules for financing them; Referring to the restrictions on opponents of constitutional amendments, the Central Election Commission has taken a role to strengthen the position of supporters of these amendments; What the group considered a violation of the law.

But when these restrictions are lifted, Russia may witness large rallies and demonstrations, as the political scientist Alexander Kynev believes, quoting DW news: "They know - Russian officials - that once the restrictions are lifted, the dissatisfaction that accumulates now will spread starting from the Internet - in reference to calls for online demonstrations - to the real world, or the opposition may benefit from the dissatisfaction of groups of Russians to use it in mobilizing for any future demonstrations, especially during the legislative elections in the fall of 2021.

A question about the next step

Constitutional amendments opened the doors to several scenarios. Russian President Vladimir Putin initially hinted in the aftermath of the referendum that he might run in the next presidential election, saying in June 2020: " “I have not decided anything for myself yet. I do not rule out the possibility of running for office if this (option) comes up in the constitution. We’ll see”. It seems that President Putin, like Presidents Erdogan and Xi - will run for a new term as a first step, during which he is likely to start looking for successors, despite his earlier displeasure with the idea of looking for successors, when he said: "People need to work, not look for successors.”, yet Putin uses this option when it comes to his goals and ambitions, and in the past, Medvedev ran for the presidency in 2008, when Putin exceeded the two-term limit, to retain the presidency of prime minister.

Behind this proposition is an urgent necessity for the 67-year-old President Putin, and since he has not yet exceeded the normal life expectancy in Russia of 72 years – according to World Bank data – that with the remaining four years of his presidency, and assuming that he may intend to remain in power until 2036, he will be 83 years old; here: he may be somewhat vulnerable to a health crisis while in office, which is why he needs to seek a credible successor.

But that is not enough, as it seems clear that the constitutional amendments took into account the worst-case scenarios for Putin and the surrounding elite, so his ideology and conservative cultural orientation have been established since once the position of president becomes vacant or the opposition becomes popular, the incumbent will have to match the precise constitutional parameters, some of these parameters prohibit anyone who holds a foreign nationality or residence permits in other countries from being appointed as prime minister, judge or district chief. Not to mention the amendment on the primacy of constitutional norms over international laws, since Russian officials are forced - on the ground - to make no concessions to the West if they want to abide by the new constitutional rules, as well as the amendment that prohibits the handover of parts of Russian territory and makes Putin's policies of annexing Crimea a constitutional principle that is not negotiable and disagreeable.

After all, the principle of balance of powers remains the most important, as the new constitutional amendments granted the State Duma the right to choose a prime minister, refused to appoint ministers or deputy prime ministers, and strengthened the role of the Council of State, which is responsible for approving the internal and external affairs of the State. In Putin's presence, these institutions are unlikely to translate the new constitutional rules accurately, but they - the rules - may be institutional controls and weight to effectively balance the powers if someone other than Putin takes over the presidency.

Conclusion

It is clear that maintaining foreign policy gains plays a role in bypassing previous constitutional rules and replacing them with new rules that prolong President Putin's stay in power, so Putin's foreign policies will continue in Ukraine and Syria, yet Putin has a presidential term that will be dominated by domestic challenges: the search for a popularly accepted successor, the growing role of the opposition, and the growing movement of protests in the streets of Russia, which refuses to concentrate power in one person's hands.

In the near term, Putin will succeed in consolidating his rule, but he may have difficulty in the long run, and he may find himself, like former Chinese President Yuan Shikai, who in 1915 proclaimed himself emperor, to later abandon his attempts following popular pressure and military uprisings against him.

Hence, in the medium term, internal challenges are expected to overcome the foreign activity of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and although the consolidation of his external gains is equally important, strengthening and developing them will not be as easy in the coming days.

Author: STRATEGIECS Team Policy Analysis Team