What Happened?

Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot announced their resignation from the three-member war cabinet led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on June 9. Gantz’s resignation, expected to be announced June 8, was delayed a day due to Israel’s military operation to liberate detainees being held in central Gaza’s Nuseirat refugee camp.

A Closer Look:

The resignation comes after the relationships in the three-member war cabinet reach a critical phase over disputes about the war and the Israeli “Day After” vision for Gaza after the war. Gantz insisted that any post-war plan would have to include the following six conditions: returning the detainees, ending Hamas’s rule over Gaza, forming an alternative administration there, allowing the residents of Israel’s north to return home, advancing normalization with Saudi Arabia, and the creation of an outline for Haredim to serve in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). He gave Netanyahu until June 8 to achieve a consensus on his plan or he would submit his resignation.

Gantz postponed his resignation because of the IDF operation to liberate detainees on that date. The event that Netanyahu’s government described as a tactical achievement for its way of managing the war in Gaza was a bloodbath that rescued four people but killed three other detainees, including an American, and at least 274 Palestinians.

The government attempted through that operation to weaken the momentum of the Israeli opposition’s support for U.S. President Joe Biden’s plan. The resignation of Benny Gantz the next day, however, reignited the debate over the future of both the war cabinet and the coalition government.

A Turning Point!

The resignation of the two ministers from the war cabinet does not necessarily mean the dissolution of the governing coalition, which maintains its parliamentary majority. However, it does raise a number of variables and challenges that could have a profound impact on the future of the coalition. It can be interpreted as a preemptive move by the opposition to dismantle the government.

 First, the resignations united the opposition behind their goal of holding early parliamentary elections, especially with the joint efforts of the resigned ministers with opposition leaders Yair Lapid and Avigdor Lieberman.

Second, the resignation comes amid increasing chances of Gantz becoming the next prime minister if early elections are held, according to opinion polls, including a Maariv newspaper survey on June 7, which found that 42% of Israelis preferred Gantz for the premiership compared to only 34% for Netanyahu.

Third, the opposition is attempting to leverage the upcoming Knesset vote on the conscription law on June 10 to create rifts within the government. They aim to either block its passage, thereby embarrassing the extremist parties in front of their electoral bases, or ensure its passage with a parliamentary majority, which, according to Israel’s Reshet Bet Radio, could lead to the resignation of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who opposes this law and is likely to vote against it.

Fourth, the opposition is pressuring Netanyahu to agree to the “Biden Plan,” which received support from opposition parties and Israeli President Isaac Herzog. This plan will be the top agenda item during the upcoming visit of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Egypt and then Israel.

If an agreement for a ceasefire is reached, it could prompt the extremist parties in the governing coalition to follow through on their threats to withdraw, resulting in the government losing its majority and potentially leading to early elections.