What Happened?

On September 8, 2024, a shooting at the border crossing between the Palestinian territories and Jordan resulted in the death of three Israelis from “security guards” and the injury of two others, as well as the death of the shooter. The Israeli Ports Authority announced the closure of all border crossings with Jordan, while Amman announced the closure of the King Hussein Bridge due to its “closure from the other side until further notice".

A Closer Look:

Both Israel and Jordan have announced the start of investigations into the incident. Preliminary information indicates that it was carried out by one of the Jordanian truck drivers transporting commercial goods to the West Bank through the border. According to the Israeli army’s scenario of the incident, the attacker opened fire with a pistol on the security personnel who were securing the inspection operations.

Otherwise, the details of the shooting and information about the attacker are under official investigation in both countries, which is expected to address pressing questions regarding the nature of the operation, its background, and whether it was an individual attack or if the attacker was influenced by certain ideologies.

In fact, the incident has been highlighted as the first of its kind at the border crossing. This is particularly notable since the crossing had remained largely unaffected by both the war in the Gaza Strip and the Israeli practices that have led to unprecedented humanitarian costs for Palestinians in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, in addition to the ongoing provocations and violations at the Al-Aqsa Mosque and attempts to alter the status quo there.

This incident is added to previous incidents that have contributed to the tension in Jordanian-Israeli relations, including the killing of a Jordanian judge at the crossing in March 2014 and the arrest of a Jordanian Member of parliament for attempting to smuggle weapons and gold across the border in April 2023, before being returned to Jordan for further investigation.

At the same time, the incident renews concerns about the ongoing war and its consequences, particularly its impact on public discourse and the continuous warnings about its tendency to favor armed action. It also recalls the threat of individual shootings decades after a similar incident in March 1997 in the Baqura area.

A Turning Point!

Repercussions are likely to remain limited on both the security and political levels, as well as on Jordanian-Israeli relations despite its context amid the war in Gaza, the escalation in the West Bank, and the resulting tension between the two countries. Incidents of this nature typically require restraint from both parties, and it is probable that the investigations separately conducted by both countries will involve mutual coordination and shared outcomes.

However, the turning point occur if the incident feeds into the rhetoric of the Israeli right-wing government and its extremists, particularly concerning their ongoing claims of weapons smuggling from Jordan into the West Bank. This includes periodic announcements of thwarted weapons smuggling attempts through Jordan, with Israel often blaming Iran for such smuggling efforts.

For instance, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz accused Iran in late August 2024 of attempting to open what he termed an “eastern front” by smuggling weapons into Jordan. This is an attempt to transform the border from being “peaceful” to an “active front.”

The Israeli government continued to issue accusations in its statements about the shooting incident. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly declared that Israel is surrounded by “deadly ideology led by the Iranian axis of evil”—with no evidence linking the executor to Iran and before any investigation could fully begin to gather facts and evidence. The repeated incidents on the border put Jordan in the midst of the Israeli-Iranian conflict despite its effort to shield the kingdom from its costs and repercussions.

 Jordan has proven its ability to manage that conflict through its accumulated experience in preventing crises, managing surrounding conflicts, and preventing them from affecting the country’s security and stability. However, Israel’s use of the Iranian angle reflects a pattern it increasingly employs in its official rhetoric that aims to alter realities and establish new equations regarding its borders with Jordan and Egypt. This suggests the strong possibility that the Israeli government will exploit the shooting incident to renew its plans to build a wall along its border with Jordan, citing security reasons.

This is replay of the reason Israel gave for its insistence on remaining in the Philadelphi Corridor despite the tension its presence there creates with Egypt. And it further signals that Israel’s relations with its neighboring countries, specifically Jordan and Egypt, may remain strained but without escalating beyond its current level of political or diplomatic tension.

On the other hand, the incident is likely to negatively impact the delivery of Jordanian aid to the Gaza Strip, which relies on the King Hussein Bridge for its route into Gaza. With the closure of the crossing from both sides, food aid, including meals and ready-to-eat food parcels, is at risk of spoilage. This could delay the entry of aid for several months. Additionally, Israel is expected to exploit this incident by imposing further restrictions and obstacles on aid delivery. It is likely that Israel will amend its procedures and implement complex inspection processes that may take a long time.