What Happened?
On November 3, U.S. Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken visited the region for the third time since the conflict between Hamas and Israel began on October 7. His tour included visits to Israel, Jordan, Ramallah, Turkey, and Iraq. This diplomatic mission was followed by an unexpected visit by the Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns to Israel and Egypt on November 5.
A Closer Look:
The visits of U.S. officials in the region occurred as the conflict entered its second month. There were concerns that engagements might expand and battlefronts could multiply. Israel had intensified its land, sea, and air attacks, but it had not yet achieved its stated goal of eradicating Hamas. Simultaneously, Palestinian factions continued their attacks against the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip and against Israeli cities and settlements.
Despite the evolving situation on the battlefronts and the unpredictability of outcomes, there were efforts on both the international and regional fronts to reach a ceasefire and allow humanitarian aid to reach Gaza Strip residents. Meanwhile, Israeli citizens, feeling the high costs and social repercussions of the war, became increasingly focused on recovering prisoners and hostages. Tension is mounting in the West Bank, which could escalate at any moment.
Due to these circumstances—which were not favorable for Israel, the United States, or the countries in the region—the diplomatic arena is witnessing significant activity aimed at coordinating positions among the concerned countries and reaffirming deterrence messages to Iran and its groups to prevent further expansion of the war. This was happening concurrent with a security process to strategically shape the next phase in preparation for permanent arrangements that complement the diplomatic efforts.
A Turning Point!
Escorted by the American Delta Force for protection, Blinken’s trip to Iraq indicated the importance of this visit’s mission despite the associated risks: to reaffirm U.S. deterrence power, obtain a ceasefire in Gaza, and convey the message that the next phase might not be accepted by all parties in the Middle East. On November 6, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani relayed this message to Tehran during his visit with Iranian leader Ali Khamenei. This was later confirmed by Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdollahian.
The turning point is when the United States begins to plan post-war arrangements through task distribution, effort coordination, and position networking. This approach aims to neutralize the risks of a repeat of the events that began on October 7 and to ensure a smooth political transition of governance in the Gaza Strip. These steps require an economic and security partnership with the concerned Arab countries and the Palestinian Authority, providing the new authority with the legitimacy and resources necessary to carry out its activities, reconstruct the Gaza Strip, and prevent either a security vacuum or chaos in the post-war stage.
