What Happened?

For the first time since the beginning of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, senior American and Russian officials met in person. Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization hosted a meeting November 14, 2022, between U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns and the director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergey Naryshkin.

A Closer Look:

The meeting between the American and Russian intelligence directors, which occurred a few days after Russia began to withdrawal its troops from the strategic Ukrainian city of Kherson, is the highest level of face-to-face interaction between the two countries since the beginning of the war. It focused on the danger of global destabilization if Russia acts on its threat to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

The meeting reflected the growing international role of Turkey’s foreign affairs office and intelligence organization.

- In March 2022, Turkey hosted peace negotiations in Ankara between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.

- In July 2022, Turkey hosted two delegations from Russia and Ukraine to discuss the resumption of grain exports across the Black Sea with Turkish and UN diplomats, which resulted in all four parties signing the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

-And in August 2022, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and UN Secretary-General António Guterres in Lviv, Ukraine.

A Turning Point!

Over the past decade, there has been growing Western concern about a strategic Turkish inclination towards partnership with Russia at the expense of NATO and its purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system. Yet Turkey, a NATO member state, has increased its diplomatic and security role since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis.

Amid the complete alignment of European and American positions, the loss of trust between the West and China, and Israel’s failure to fulfill this role, Turkey stands out as the most neutral nation in the Ukrainian crisis as it strives to play the role of mediator. Additionally, there is a precedent for the Turkish intelligence agency overseeing a prisoner exchange deal between the United States and Russia in April 2022.

Ankara may be seeking, through its actions, to lay the groundwork for hosting future peace talks between Western countries, Ukraine and Russia. Indeed, Erdoğan has already expressed Turkey’s desire to host additional U.S.-Russian meetings, which would ensure Ankara’s diplomatic, security, and intelligence influence as a key player in international settlements and deal-making.