Since 1979, the Iranian nuclear file has been a concern to the Middle East states and the U.S., especially after a religious regime came to power. This led Washington to cancel its agreement with the Iranian side, according to which Iran should have been provided with enriched uranium for peaceful purposes.
A series of events then occurred, characterized by military escalation sometimes and diplomatic negotiations in many other times, until the world finally witnessed the Iranian nuclear agreement. In July 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was concluded between Iran and the P5+1 countries during the presidency of Barack Obama. The agreement, which entered into effect as of January 2016, included suspending more than two-thirds of Iran's enrichment capabilities; being subject to ten-year monitoring; transferring Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium abroad; and reducing the number of centrifuges.
Again and as usual, Iran's nuclear file reappeared as a threat to the regional and international security when U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to "tear up" the Iranian nuclear agreement in his campaign. The vow was later realized when Trump announced his withdrawal from the agreement in May 2018. The sanctions against Iran were then reinstated and escalated gradually until Iran's oil exports were brought to zero, which has put the Middle East and the world on the brink of war.
To better understand the general context of Iran's nuclear file, a timeline of the major events related to the development of Iran's nuclear file will be presented starting from 1957 till 2019. The conclusion draws an outlook scenario of the series of events in the future.
The Shah of Iran Stage
• 1967: The country's first "research reactor" was operated and began its activities after seven years of its purchase from the U.S.
• 1968: Iran signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
• 1973: Iran signed nuclear agreements with the U.S., France, South Africa, Namibia, and West Germany.
• 1974: The Shah of Iran agreed on a tender for Germany's Kraftwerk Union KWU-Siemens to construct two electronuclear plants in the city of Bushehr in southern Iran.
The Stage of Post-Revolution and Its Exportation
• 1979: The Iranian revolution broke out and the new regime canceled the agreement to build the nuclear plant although the construction of the first reactor was 85% completed. The U.S. also revoked an agreement under which it was supposed to supply Iran with enriched uranium.
• 1987: Iraq bombed Bushehr's two reactors.
• 1995: Iran concluded an agreement with Russia to complete the construction of Bushehr's light-water reactor.
The Beginning of International Friction
• 1996: Iran began the construction of a heavy water production facility in the city of Arak, while in the same year, former U.S. President Bill Clinton endorsed an act to impose sanctions against Iran.
• 1999: Iran signed a new agreement with Russia to accelerate the construction of Bushehr's reactor, while Clinton endorsed an act to impose sanctions against individuals and institutions that provide assistance to Iran's nuclear program.
• 2002: The National Council of Resistance of Iran revealed the existence of two secret uranium enrichment facilities at the Natanz site and a heavy water plant near Arak.
Iran and the IAEA
• 2003: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) sent international inspectors to Iran, after which they published a report stating that Iran was fully compliant with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In the same year, the IAEA made further statements that they had found evidence of high-enriched uranium at Natanz's Iranian reactor.
• September 12, 2003: The IAEA Board of Governors adopted a resolution demanding Iran to "immediately suspend" all its uranium enrichment activities, sign the Additional Protocol to the NPT, and immediately allow the inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities "without limitations or restrictions".
• September 15, 2003: President of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Gholamreza Aghazadeh announced that his country would continue to cooperate with the IAEA, but refused to sign the Additional Protocol.
• October 2003: The foreign ministers of France, Germany, and Britain paid a joint visit to Tehran, during which they obtained Iran's approval to sign the additional protocol, which allows the inspection of its nuclear facilities in exchange for the European Union's recognition of Iran's right to peaceful nuclear technology and the promises of boosting bilateral economic and political relations. However, Iran later withdrew, describing the agreement as imbalanced.
• November 2003: The IAEA Board of Governors adopted a unanimous resolution condemning Iran for developing a secret nuclear program over a period of around 20 years.
• 2004: The IAEA inspectors were able to access two Iranian sites, Barjin, and Lavizan, which were found to be prepared for testing conventional explosives.
• 2004: The IAEA adopted another resolution demanding Iran to answer all the pending questions, facilitate immediate access to all sites that IAEA demands to visit, and freeze all activities related to the enrichment of uranium, which reached levels that could allow the production of nuclear fuel and the necessary fissile material to create a nuclear bomb.
• 2005: U.S. President George W. Bush warned of taking military action against Iran.
• August 2005: Iran resumed the enrichment of uranium in Isfahan.
• February 2006: The IAEA referred Iran's nuclear file to the UN Security Council.
• March 2006: The Security Council adopted a "statement" related to the means of limiting Iran's nuclear aspirations, but the statement was neither binding nor warned of imposing sanctions against Iran.
• April 2006: Iran announced a 3.5% success in the enrichment operations for peaceful purposes.
• June 2006: U.S. President George W. Bush issued a decision freezing the bank accounts of individuals involved in Iran's nuclear program.
• December 2006: The UN Security Council banned supplying Iran with equipment for the enrichment of uranium and the production of ballistic missiles.
• October 2007: Washington imposed sanctions against three Iranian banks and labeled the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as "proliferators of weapons of mass destruction."
• November 2007: The number of operating centrifuges for the enrichment of uranium amounted to 3000.
• September 2008: U.S. President George W. Bush rejected Israel's demand to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities with penetrating missiles.
• 2008: Negotiations reached a stalemate with a negative response from Iran over the demands to halt the enrichment of uranium.
• October 2009: Iran agreed to transfer 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium to Russia to convert them into nuclear fuel rods for scientific purposes.
• November 5, 2009: Iran allowed international inspectors to access its newly detected nuclear facilities.
• November 18, 2009: Iran canceled transferring low-enriched uranium to Russia.
• 2010: The "Stuxnet" virus struck Iran's nuclear plants. Even though the virus was manufactured by the U.S. and Israel, neither country explicitly acknowledged its responsibility.
• January 2010: U.S. President Barack Obama endorsed an act imposing blanket sanctions against Iran and banning investments there.
• May 2010: Iran accepted the mediation of Turkey and Brazil to resolve the dispute with the international community over its nuclear program.
• June 2010: The United Nations imposed military, commercial, and financial sanctions against Iran, banned any nuclear cooperation with Tehran, and authorized the concerned states to inspect the Iranian aircraft and ships if their cargo was suspicious.
• May 2011: Bushehr's Nuclear Power Plant was inaugurated.
• June 2011: Washington announced new sanctions against the Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij Resistance Forces, and the Law Enforcement Forces. These sanctions entailed freezing their assets and banning dealing with them.
• November 2011: A report by the IAEA revealed that Iran had a secret program to enrich uranium, but Iran denied.
• May 2012: The P5+1 countries met with Iran in Baghdad, but the talks failed.
• July 2012: The European Union banned the purchase of Iranian oil. In response, Iran announced its intention to block the movement of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to launching tests for special missiles.
• August 2012: A report published by the IAEA stated that Iran had been testing nuclear weapons and installed large parts of centrifuges at the Fordow Enrichment Plant.
The P5+1 Stage
• October 2013: The talks between Iran and the P5+1 countries resumed in Geneva.
• November 2013: Iran and the P5+1 countries signed an agreement to temporarily freeze Iran's nuclear activities.
• January 2014: The interim agreement entered into force, after which some of the Iranians' accounts were unfrozen and the country was allowed to transfer money.
• February 2014: The second round of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program began in Vienna, Austria's capital.
• April 2015: Representatives of Iran and the P5+1 countries announced reaching a consensus over the key points and decided to draft an agreement.
• July 2015: The P5+1 countries and Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in Vienna after they held intensive negotiations in Lausanne, Switzerland in order to reach a settlement over the Iranian nuclear program.
• January 2016: The JCPOA entered into force.
• August 2016: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani accused the Signatory states of breaching their commitment under the JCPOA.
Back to the Starting Point
• December 2016: Washington imposed new sanctions against Iran with regard to its ballistic missile program.
• October 6, 2017: U.S. President Donald Trump warned of withdrawing from the nuclear agreement.
• October 10, 2017: The IAEA announced that Iran was fully compliant with the provisions of the international agreement.
• October 2017: The Signatory states to the Iranian nuclear agreement confirmed their commitment to the agreement despite the threats of the U.S. president.
War Drums
• May 2018: U.S. President Donald Trump announced the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and the reinstatement of sanctions against Iran.
• August 2018: The International Court of Justice reviewed the cases filed by Iran.
• October 2018: The International Court of Justice issued a decision over the Iranian complaint demanding the U.S. to lift sanctions that target items that are for "humanitarian purposes". The court also ruled that sanctions should not affect humanitarian assistance or civil aviation safety.
• November 2018: The U.S. imposed a package of sanctions against Iran, but granted exemptions to eight countries that were temporarily allowed to import Iranian oil.
• April 2019: The U.S. demanded that the exempted countries shall halt their purchase of Iranian oil by May, or they would face sanctions.
• May 2, 2019: The U.S. canceled the exemptions granted to the eight countries with the aim of ending the export of Iranian oil.
• May 6, 2019: Tehran announced that it would resume its suspended nuclear program in response to the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement.
• May 8, 2019: Iran announced a 60-day deadline for the Signatory states to abide by the nuclear agreement they signed.
• May 9, 2019: The U.S. directed the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier to head to the Middle East.
• May 11, 2019: Iran loaded short-range ballistic and cruise missiles onto small boats controlled by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard through the Arabian Gulf.
• May 12, 2019: UAE Foreign Ministry announced that four mercantile ships of several nationalities were sabotaged near the territorial waters.
• May 15, 2019: Iran officially suspended some of its obligations under the nuclear agreement.
• May 26, 2019: Iran refused the direct and indirect negotiations with the U.S. and called on building a balanced relationship with the Gulf states.
• June 8, 2019: The U.S. imposed sanctions against Iran's largest petrochemical group and its subsidiaries.
• June 8, 2019: Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said that Iran was adopting “unconventional” means to keep the sales of its oil and circumvent the U.S. sanctions.
• June 9, 2019: Iran threatened the JCPOA signatories of taking new measures if the 60-day deadline ended with no results.
• June 10, 2019: Iran carried out its threat of increasing the production of enriched uranium.
• June 13, 2019: Two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman were hit by massive explosions and crew members of both tankers were injured.
• June 13, 2019: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed Iran for the attack on the oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman.
• June 13, 2019: The U.S. military released a video showing the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps removing an unexploded mine that was stuck on one of the oil tankers that had been attacked.
• June 14, 2019: Iran "categorically rejected" the U.S. allegations stating that Iran was responsible for the attacks on the two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman.
• June 16, 2019: British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt accused Iran of targeting the two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman.
• June 16, 2019: Iran criticized Britain's "unacceptable" stance regarding the attacks in the Gulf of Oman.
• June 17, 2019: Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Spokesperson Behrouz Kamalvandi announced that Iran's production of low-enriched uranium would pass the 300-kilogram ceiling in 10 days and the production of enriched uranium would exceed 3.67%, adding that Iran might export heavy water and increase its production to more than 130 tons.
• June 18, 2019: U.S. Acting Defense Secretary Patrick M. Shanahan authorized the mobilization of 1,000 additional troops to the Middle East.
• June 20, 2019: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced shooting down a U.S. spy drone in the country's southern province of Hormozgan.
• June 20, 2019: The U.S. confirmed that Iran shot down an American drone over the Strait of Hormuz, saying that it was downed in the international airspace, not the Iranian.
• June 21, 2019: U.S. President Donald Trump pulled back military strikes against Iranian targets, which were supposed to be in response to the downing of the U.S. drone. The strikes were intended to target Iranian missile batteries and radars.
• June 22, 2019: The U.S. called on the UN Security Council to hold a closed-door meeting on Iran.
• June 22, 2019: Iran said it refrained from shooting down a U.S. plane with 35 persons on board, noting that the plane was accompanying the downed drone in the Gulf.
• June 23, 2019: U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the military option against Iran was still present, adding that the U.S. would impose additional sanctions on Iran to prevent the country from obtaining nuclear weapons.
• June 23, 2019: Saudi Arabia's state airlines announced changing flight routes to avoid the Iranian airspace.
• June 24, 2019: The U.S. said it was ready for talks with Iran to reach an agreement, according to which the U.S. would lift sanctions against Iran, while Iran should limit its nuclear and missile program-related activities, in addition to limiting support to its proxies in the region.
• June 24, 2019: Iran said it would not reverse its decision to halt its compliance with some terms of the nuclear agreement concluded in 2015.
• June 24, 2019: The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian officials.
•June 25, 2019: Iran reiterated that the U.S. reconnaissance drone was in the Iranian airspace, not the regional.
• June 26, 2019: The U.S. launched a cyberattack on Kata’ib Hezbollah in Iraq, Syria, and Iran, according to U.S. officials.
• June 26, 2019: The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran announced increasing the pace of uranium enrichment at the Natanz reactor.
• June 28, 2019: Iranian Ambassador to the UN Majid Rawanji pledged that his country would not build nuclear weapons even if the nuclear program agreement collapsed.
• June 29, 2019: The U.S. Senate rejected an amendment to the defense policy bill that sought to bar President Donald Trump from striking Iran without congressional approval.
• July 1, 2019: Iran's production of low-enriched uranium (LEU) exceeded the 300kg limit.
• July 4, 2019: Authorities in Gibraltar detained an Iranian oil tanker which was suspected of carrying two million barrels of crude oil to Syria.
• July 5, 2019: Tehran summoned the British ambassador to voice its objection to the seizure of its oil tanker.
• July 7, 2019: Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas said that Tehran would no longer recognize the JCPOA framework of the P5+1 group after the U.S. withdrawal.
• July 7, 2019: Iran said that the level of uranium enrichment exceeded 3.67%, reaching at least 4.5%.
• July 10, 2019: The European Union, Germany, France, and Britain issued a joint statement urging Iran to fully comply with the nuclear agreement that is risked by further collapse, and called on the joint committee to hold an urgent meeting.
• July 10, 2019: The U.S. Treasury Department announced imposing sanctions on two members of the parliament and a security official in the Lebanese "Hezbollah".
• July 11, 2019: The UK government spokesperson said that three Iranian boats tried to intercept a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, but the boats moved away upon receiving warnings from a British warship.
• July 11, 2019: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps denied that its boats had intercepted a British oil tanker in the Gulf.
• July 12, 2019: Iran demanded that Britain immediately release the tanker held in Gibraltar, and warned of the consequences.
• July 12, 2019: The Government of Gibraltar said that the "Grace 1" tanker was carrying 2.1 million barrels of light Iranian crude oil.
• July 12, 2019: The UK sent a second warship to the Gulf to step up its military presence in the region following Iran's threats after the oil tanker was detained in Gibraltar.
• July 12, 2019: The U.S. has decided not to impose sanctions on Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif for now.
• July 12, 2019: The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet said it was working with the British Royal Navy and other partners to ensure free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
• July 13, 2019: The U.S. House of Representatives voted to restrict President Donald Trump's capability to launch an attack against Iran.
• July 13, 2019: The Police of Gibraltar, one of the UK Crown Dependencies, said that all four crew members of the detained tanker were released on bail without charges.
•July 14, 2019: UK Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt told his Iranian counterpart that Britain would facilitate the release of the detained oil tanker if there were guarantees it would not go to Syria.
• July 15, 2019: The EU foreign ministers held a meeting in Brussels to discuss the recent developments related to the nuclear agreement.
• July 16, 2019: Tracking data showed that an oil tanker from the UAE that was traveling through the Strait of Hormuz drifted into the Iranian waters, after which its location tracker had been turned off for more than two days.
• July 17, 2019: Emirates News Agency said that the oil tanker "MT RIAH" that disappeared in the Iranian territorial waters was not owned by the UAE.
• July 19, 2019: The U.S. warship "Boxer" downed an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz because "it posed a threat to the ship" as stated by U.S. President Donald Trump.
• July 19, 2019: Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araji denied losing any drone in the Straits of Hormuz.
• July 19, 2019: Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif proposed to ratify an agreement to allow broader inspections of its nuclear facilities if the U.S. dropped the economic sanctions imposed on Tehran.
• July 19, 2019: Iran's Revolutionary Guards seized a Panamanian-flagged oil tanker called "Riah" amid accusations of smuggling Iranian fuel.
• July 19, 2019: The U.S. Department of State demanded that Iran immediately release a vessel it seized in the Gulf with its entire crew.
• July 19, 2019: The U.S. imposed sanctions on five individuals and an international network of companies; the U.S. Treasury Department said they were involved in the procurement of materials for Iran’s nuclear program
• July 20, 2019: U.S. President Donald Trump authorized Republican Senator Rand Paul to negotiate with Iran over reducing tensions in the Gulf.
• July 20, 2019: Iran detained British oil tanker "Stena Impero" in the Strait of Hormuz.
• July 20, 2019: The British Foreign Office summoned the Iranian charge d'affaires in London following Tehran's seizure of a British-flagged oil tanker.
• July 20, 2019: An armed group in the Strait of Hormuz stopped the oil tanker "Mesdar", which is operated by the Norbulk Shipping UK. The company confirmed that the vessel was "allowed" to continue sailing.
• July 20, 2019: Spokesperson of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Behrooz Kamalvandi confirmed that Iran’s Fordow nuclear site had not been closed, saying that the facility was being used for research on vacuum systems.
• July 20, 2019: Two Iranian bulk carriers were stranded in Brazil after the Brazilian firms refused to provide them with diesel as per the U.S. sanctions imposed on Tehran.
• July 20, 2019: The U.S. Department of Defense authorized the deployment of U.S. military personnel and resources to Saudi Arabia, while Saudi Arabia's King Salman Bin Abdulaziz approved hosting the U.S. forces.
• July 20, 2019: The U.S. Central Command announced that the U.S. was developing a military operation called the Guardian to secure the sea routes in the Gulf and the Middle East.
• July 21, 2019: London began an investigation into potential Russian involvement in the Iranian seizure of two British oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
• July 21, 2019: Iran’s Minister of Transport Mohammad Eslami said that Saudi authorities released an Iranian oil tanker, which has been detained in Jeddah Port for nearly three months.
The Crisis is Heading Further Towards Proxy-Wars
The current perceived military confrontation between the U.S. and its allies on one hand and Iran on the other hand was escalating. After a period of rational stability in the region, during which the U.S. imposed economic-financial sanctions to put Iran under pressure to change its "hostile behavior", a new phase of confrontation has begun in the past weeks.
Two separate attacks on oil and petrochemical tankers offshore the UAE port of Fujairah and in the Gulf of Oman have resulted in a more serious military situation on both sides. Accusations have been made that Iran is behind the maritime attacks, but no solid proof has yet been presented. At the same time, the U.S. has openly indicated its preparation to react militarily via specific surgical strikes on Iran if another attack occurred, especially after a U.S. military drone was downed by Iranian air defenses in disputed waters.
The ongoing confrontation could quickly develop into a full-blown military, but the U.S., its allies, and Iran are still showing a rational approach that is preventing a blow-up.
Looking at the military situation in the region, most military analysts would agree on the strategic assessment that the U.S. and its allies are currently not yet on a war-posture level. This is due to several reasons including the lack of military and funding capabilities in the region, the decreased ability to deploy massive military troops, and the potential obstacles that would be set by key-partners such as Turkey, Qatar, and Iraq.
The instigation of a full-scale military operation requires access to the Turkish, Iraqi, and Qatari airspace and military bases. Until now, the only options available are surgical strikes or rapid-response operations, which cannot remove the Iranian power, but would only restrict its military and nuclear capabilities.
Looking at the scene in the Middle East, it is noted that Iran has been able to build up a strong and flexible military and geopolitical proxy-war capability as it has been supporting and expanding military groups in the region. When discussing military action against Iran, the U.S. and its allies have to take into account the possible actions of Iranian proxies in the region. These groups will be supporting Iran in its containment of the U.S. military operations, while at the same time, threatening to take action against their Arab neighbors. The actions of Iran's proxies prove that their capabilities are growing.
For the foreseeable future, a direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely as both sides have too much to lose. Iran’s regime is highly unlikely to take the approach to confront the U.S. directly. On the other hand, the official Tehran position could be undermined by the more extreme groups within Iran. The Revolutionary Guard Corps could decide to take it on their own hands as it adopts a belligerent attitude within an ideological context. This could lead to unexpected reactions from the U.S. side.
In case of a military confrontation, the situation in the Middle East will become increasingly difficult. The main scenarios are based on a (temporary) closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which will block around 30% of oil, petrochemical products, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from reaching the global market. At the same time, the trade flow of the Arab Gulf states and Iran will be constrained or completely halted.
In the case of an all-out war situation, Iran and the Arab countries in the Gulf will be hit severely, resulting in the destruction of the existing infrastructure, and the onshore and offshore oil and gas fields will be possibly targeted. The possibility that proxy forces will take part in these operations would increase regional instability.
Taking into consideration the possible decline in overall revenues of the regional countries due to the siege or the hikes in the cost of oil transportation, the outfall of such a confrontation would not only be the loss of lives, but also significant and widespread destruction. This, indeed, would diminish the attractiveness of the region for a long period of time.
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